Georgia vs. Florida game score prediction by college football analytic model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Florida in this SEC football classic

Two long-time rivals square off from Jacksonville this weekend as The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party returns to the Sunshine State to welcome No. 1 ranked Georgia against SEC East hopeful Florida on Saturday.

• Gators check in at 3rd in the SEC East with a 3-1 conference mark, winning 2 straight since the Kentucky loss
• Florida has a win over ranked Tennessee under its belt
• Georgia lost star tight end Brock Bowers to an ankle injury for the next few weeks, leaving 
• Bulldogs averaging over 500 yards per game and rank top 10 nationally in passing, scoring offense, and scoring defense
• What can we expect in the game? Let's turn to SP+ for a prediction

Georgia vs. Florida prediction

Georgia vs. Florida game predictions, picks / USA Today Images

The simulations favor Georgia to defeat Florida and stay undefeated this week.

SP+ expects the Bulldogs to take down the Gators by a projected score of 34 to 20, a forecasted scoring margin of 14.7 points for the defending national champs.

The model gives Georgia a strong 80 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Georgia is a 13.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -699 and for Florida at +425.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Georgia -13.5
• UGA on the ML at -699
• Bet over 47 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models suggest Georgia will defeat Florida convincingly, as well.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index forecasts Georgia will win in 85.2 percent of its simulations, or in 17,040 of its projections.

Florida wins out in the remaining 14.8 percent of sims, or 2,960 predictions.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts Georgia will beat Florida by 15.1 points.

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Georgia vs. Florida schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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