Georgia vs. Ole Miss: Score Prediction, Game Pick

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Georgia in this Week 11 college football game

SEC cross-division teams meet up between the hedges in a late-season conference matchup that will have a direct impact on how the league's championship game and indeed the national College Football Playoff picture will unfold, as CFP No. 2 Georgia welcomes No. 9 Ole Miss in a battle of top-10 ranked teams on Saturday.

• Georgia didn't do enough to move to No. 1 according to the CFP selectors
• That's despite beating a ranked Missouri team at home
• Now comes the second in a three-game stand against SEC teams in the poll
• Rebels are 2nd in the West but a loss to Alabama is keeping them down
• Ole Miss is top-15 nationally in scoring, averaging just under 39 points per game
• Bulldogs are top-10 in scoring defense, allowing 15.4, and is 7th in offense

What can we make of the game? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a forecast for the matchup this weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia score prediction

So far, the simulations are favoring the Bulldogs to stay undefeated at home.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Ole Miss by a projected score of 34 to 21 and win the game by a projected margin of 13 points.

The model gives UGA a 77 percent chance of winning the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Georgia is a 10.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -450 and for Ole Miss at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Georgia -10.5
• UGA on the ML at -450
• Bet under 55.5 (-111)

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also project Georgia will defeat the Rebels.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Georgia will win the game in 69.8 percent of its simulations, or 13,960 of its predictions.

Ole Miss wins out in the remaining 30.2 percent of sims, or 6,040 projections.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts Georgia will defeat Ole Miss by 4.9 points, or by 5 if we round up, but not enough to cover the line.

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Ole Miss at Georgia game time

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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