Georgia vs. Florida State: Orange Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Orange Bowl as Georgia and Florida State meet in one of the New Year's Six games in College Football Bowl Season

A pair of elite teams that were inside the top-four heading into their respective conference championship games are looking to end their seasons on a high note after missing out on the College Football Playoff, albeit controversially in one case, as No. 6 ranked, SEC runner-up Georgia takes on ACC champion, No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl game in the days before the new year.

• Georgia: The two-time defending national champions lost a chance at a three-peat after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game
• Florida State: Seminoles controversially became the first undefeated Power Five conference champ to miss out on the College Football Playoff

Georgia vs. Florida State prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 30
Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2023 Orange Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Georgia -19.5
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: UGA -1613 | FSU +650
FPI pick: Georgia 60.7% to win

What to watch for

1. Who's left? The story of Florida State's bowl season is all the opt-outs, an expected 11 starters in all, including five defensively. Third-string quarterback Brock Glenn steps in, limited on experience, but working behind an offensive line that remains intact. 

He went 8 of 21 in the ACC title game and is missing a plethora of receiving targets, but the Seminoles have credible depth at WR, enough to marginally challenge Georgia's superb perimeter defenders, and Glenn has shown he can run the ball, too. But in all, Florida State lost 86 percent of its total yardage from this season and 80 percent of its touchdowns.

2. Third down. Georgia is 1 of 2 teams nationally that ranks top 10 in both scoring offense and defense, but one of the critical strengths of the team on both sides of the ball is third down play. The Bulldogs are No. 1 on defense, allowing opponents to convert on 26.4 percent of chances, and are No. 2 on offense, moving the chains on 54.8 percent of opportunities. 

Florida State is 80th on the money down offensively, with 36 percent conversion success, but 3rd on defense (27.4%), and despite its losses on defense, the unit still retains more of its production than the offense does.

3. Georgia can move. While defense has helped build Georgia's recent mini-dynasty — and the unit is still strong, ranking 10th nationally — the Bulldogs remain a potent threat moving the ball themselves. Carson Beck ranked 7th in quarterback rating this season while compiling 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions and commands a unit that is 10th in passing production. 

But the Dawgs can run, too: backs Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards combined for 23 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards and together average over 5.6 yards per carry. Beck will face less pressure and Georgia's backs will find running room to the outside as Seminoles edge rusher Jared Verse won't play in the game.

Georgia vs. Florida State prediction

Obviously, the Seminoles' personnel losses are glaring, so much so that few analysts are predicting they will win the game. And while Florida State's protection has the bodies to thwart the Bulldogs' pass rush early on, and enough returning defensive skill to keep it close in the first half, the absence of a credible threat moving the ball, combined with Georgia's intact skill offense favors the defending champions.

College Football HQ picks...

• Georgia wins 38-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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