Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by college football computer model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Tennessee in this Week 12 college football game

Having already passed the first two big tests on its late-season schedule, Georgia hits the road in an effort to pass the third, taking its new No. 1 position in the College Football Playoff rankings in an SEC clash against No. 18 Tennessee on Saturday.

• Georgia moved back to No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, jumping Ohio State after its two wins against ranked opponents
• Bulldogs are top 10 nationally in scoring offense and defense, averaging 40.6 points per game and allowing 15.6 from the opposition
• UGA has already clinched the East Division and will play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game the first week of December
• Vols slid down in the CFP rankings after a 36-7 loss at Missouri, falling to 3-3 in SEC play and into third place in the East Division standings

Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a forecast for the game.

Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions

The simulations favor the Bulldogs to stay undefeated on the road this weekend.

SP+ forecasts that Georgia will defeat Tennessee by a projected score of 33 to 22 and to win the game by a projected 10.8 points, or by 11 points if we round up.

The model expects UGA to win the game outright with 73 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.

Point spread

Georgia is a 10 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -380 and for Tennessee at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Tennessee +10
• Georgia to win -380
• Under 58.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytic tools also favor the Bulldogs to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts that Georgia will win the game in 69.3 percent of its simulations, while Tennessee wins out in the remaining 30.7 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Georgia will defeat Tennessee by 8.8 points, not enough to cover the line.

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Georgia at Tennessee game time

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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