Iowa State vs. Memphis: Liberty Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Liberty Bowl as Iowa State and Memphis clash in the latest matchup during College Football Bowl Season

Memphis won't have to travel far to play its bowl game, as the Tigers get the opportunity to host this year's Liberty Bowl matchup in their own stadium, welcoming in Big 12 challenger Iowa State in the latest installment of College Football Bowl Season. The Cyclones beat Memphis by 1 point in their last meeting five years ago.

• Iowa State: Cyclones went 7-5, finishing 4th in the Big 12 standings, winning five of the last seven games thanks in part to a top-35 scoring defense
• Memphis: Tigers won 9 games coming into bowl season and were 21 combined points from going undefeated in three losses, ranking 7th in scoring

Iowa State vs. Memphis prediction, preview

When: Fri., Dec. 29
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Liberty Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Iowa State -10.5
Total: 57.5 points
Moneyline: ISU -400 | UM +320
FPI pick: Iowa State 63.2% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Iowa State tailback Abu Sama came on strong late in the season, scoring three of his six touchdowns and amassing 45 percent of his rushing yards in the season finale against Kansas State. Working behind the Cyclones' decent line and against a Memphis run stop that ranks 100th nationally in yards allowed, Sama should find running lanes to create opportunities as the game wears on.

2. Tigers on the attack. When given enough time in the pocket, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan can pick apart a good pass defense, good for over 3,500 yards passing with 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Henigan's arm has been instrumental for an offense that ranks 27th on third down, 22nd on fourth down, 24th in the red zone, 22nd in pass efficiency, and 28th in turnover margin.

3. Cyclones on the back end. Iowa State plays a strong air defense, holding opponents to under 200 yards passing in five games, and the unit has intercepted 16 passes, the 4th most among all defenses this season. The Cyclones are top-50 keeping opposing passers to 12.5 yards per pass completion, and rank 16th in red zone defense.

Iowa State vs. Memphis prediction

Memphis will struggle stopping the run and closing down throwing lanes in the deeper field, but Henigan will keep the game close all day. 

And even the rushing attack can help: the Tigers are 9-0 when running for over 100 yards and 0-3 when they don't.

But the Cyclones have the pass defense to make the difference and the ground game to control the clock and keep Memphis off the field just enough.

College Football HQ picks...

• Iowa State wins 34-26
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

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