Kansas State vs. Kansas game pick, score prediction

Making a prediction for Kansas State vs. Kansas in this Week 12 college football game

Locked in a four-way tie at 5-2 in conference play and with just two games remaining in the regular season, No. 21 Kansas State hits the road against long-time in-state rival No. 25 Kansas in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.

• Wildcats need to win this game and the finale against Iowa State and then get some help in order to sneak back into the Big 12 Championship Game
• K-State is 12th in college football by scoring 38.8 points per game on average
• And it's 15th in rushing production and 22nd in scoring defense per game
• Kansas State has won just one game on the road this season and has lost the other three

What can we make of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

Kansas State vs. Kansas prediction

The simulations favor the road team to come out ahead in this rivalry game.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Kansas by a projected score of 34 to 25 and win the game by an expected 8.8 points.

The model gives the Wildcats a 69 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.

Point spread

Kansas State is a 10 point favorite against Kansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 57.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for KSU at -380 and for KU at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Kansas +8
• Kansas State to win -380
• Bet over 57.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor Kansas State to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index forecasts that Kansas State will win the game in 79.2 percent of its simulations, while Kansas wins out in the remaining 20.8 percent of sims.

The computer predicts that Kansas State will defeat Kansas by 13.1 points, enough to cover the line.

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Kansas State at Kansas game time

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: FS1 network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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