Kansas vs. UNLV: Guaranteed Rate Bowl 2023 prediction, pick
Two college football programs on the make look to make one last statement in the 2023 season as they enter the postseason hoping to take another important step forward in their rebuilding efforts. This year's Guaranteed Rate Bowl features Big 12 upstart Kansas facing off against Mountain West third-place finisher UNLV.
Third-year coach Lance Leipold has brought the Jayhawks back into relevance, going 8-4 this season and finished with their first winning record in conference play since the 2007 season, including an upset victory over Oklahoma.
UNLV won its most games since 1984 and earned a spot in the conference championship game in head coach Barry Odom's debut season with the program.
Kansas vs. UNLV prediction, preview
When: Tues., Dec. 26
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Kansas -13
Total: 67.5 points
Moneyline: LU -520 | UNLV +385
FPI pick: Kansas 72.2% to win
What to watch for
1. Battle at the line. Kansas is one of college football's premier rushing teams. It comes into the bowl season ranked No. 9 nationally and is averaging 211.3 rushing yards per game on average. Devin Neal leads the way with 1,209 yards on the year, posting 6.6 yards per carry, and has 15 of KU's 31 rushing touchdowns. Daniel Hishaw has 599 additional yards on the ground, is good for over 5 per touch, and has scored 8 times. UNLV is 87th against the run, allowing 4.32 ypc and 163 yards per game.
2. Turnovers. UNLV's defense struggled late in the season, allowing more big plays than usual in two straight losses to end the year, including in the Mountain West title game. In addition to its struggles against the rush, allowing more than 5 ypc in the last three outings, the pass defense allows more than 238 yards in the air on average. But it's good at generating takeaways, ranking top 25 in margin, intercepting 14 passes and taking back 10 fumbles from opponents. KU is top 50 in that department, losing 14 and gaining 16 on the year.
3. Rebels can run. UNLV's "Go-Go Offense" can certainly go, ranking 1st in the Mountain West with 34.3 points per game, good for top 25 nationally, and scoring 40 points in a school-record six games this year. The Rebels are 5th nationally in third down offense, converting 50.3% of their chances, and 10th in red zone efficiency, scoring points 92.7% of the time. UNLV's skill threats — led by quarterback Jordan Maiava and his 2,794 yards — can get in space and churn out yards after the catch. The team was 2nd nationally with 37 rushing touchdowns, which accounted for 73 percent of its total scoring this season.
Kansas vs. UNLV prediction
While the Jayhawks look like the more complete team overall, especially when considering their talent at the skill positions, UNLV has more than enough of its own firepower to stay in the game and keep things close throughout, plus the special teams skill to gain an important advantage when it comes to field position.
College Football HQ picks...
- Kansas wins 33-24
- Doesn't cover the spread
- And hits the under
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