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LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions: Week 3 college football computer picks, odds, lines

Expert picks and predictions for LSU vs. Mississippi State in this Week 3 college football game according to the FPI computer model
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A year ago, LSU played a dominant fourth quarter effort to take down SEC West rival Mississippi State, and now the Tigers return to play among the cowbells in rematch against the Bulldogs as both teams open the SEC slate in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Mississippi State is 2-0 in Zach Arnett's first regular season games since taking over as head coach since the death of Mike Leach, leading an offense that has relied more on running the ball despite returning gunslinger quarterback Will Rogers, posting 222 rushing yards per game in wins over SE Louisiana and Pac-12 foe Arizona.

For the second straight year, LSU sits at 1-1 overall following a loss to Florida State, but the defending division champs tuned up last week with a 72-10 thrashing over Grambling State. Jayden Daniels is a 66 percent passer with 615 yards and six touchdowns against one interception. His leading target is Brian Thomas, Jr., who has 3 of LSU's 6 touchdowns in the air and is posting 17 yards per reception.

What do the experts think of this week's matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers looks downfield on a pass attempt during a college football game.

LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions

LSU odds: The index is siding with the Tigers in this road game, with a projected 67.5 percent chance to win outright, according to the model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

Mississippi State odds: Conversely, the Bulldogs have the 32.6 percent shot to defend home field and come out with the upset, according to the latest analytics projections.

Point spread: LSU comes into the game as 9.5 point favorites against Mississippi State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

Total: 53.5 points

LSU predictions: The computers rate the Tigers as the No. 13 team nationally in the 133 college football rankings based on a projected per-game scoring margin of 18.2 points against average opponents. FPI estimates LSU will win 8.1 games this season and has a 14.1 percent shot to repeat as West champs.

Mississippi State predictions: FPI rates the Bulldogs as the No. 28 team in college football, forecasted to be 9.5 points better than an average team on a neutral field, and estimated to win 7.1 games this season.

LSU vs. Mississippi State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

More: A closer look at the AP top 25

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Georgia (55)
  2. Michigan (2)
  3. Florida State (3)
  4. Texas (2)
  5. USC
  6. Ohio State
  7. Penn State
  8. Washington
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Alabama
  11. Tennessee
  12. Utah
  13. Oregon
  14. LSU
  15. Kansas State
  16. Oregon State
  17. Ole Miss
  18. Colorado
  19. Oklahoma
  20. North Carolina
  21. Duke
  22. Miami
  23. Washington State
  24. UCLA
  25. Iowa

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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