LSU vs. Texas A&M game 2023: College football predictions by expert model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Texas A&M in this college football finale game

We're down to one game on the 2023 college football regular season schedule and in the SEC West, that means a renewal of hostilities between two border rivals this weekend as Texas A&M travels to No. 14 LSU in Saturday's Rivalry Week action.

• LSU has a chance to finish the regular season with 9 wins if it can beat the Aggies
• Tigers are 5-2 in SEC play coming in, one game ahead of A&M at 4-3
• LSU is 1st nationally in scoring, 3rd in passing, and 6th in rushing total
• After losing three in four games midseason, all to ranked teams, the Aggies won two straight, allowing 20 combined points
• A&M is 26th nationally on defense by allowing 19.5 points to opponents on average

What can we make of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction

The simulations favor the home team in this one, but by a rather close margin.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 32 to 29 and to win the game by a narrow 2.8 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 56 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

LSU is a 13 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 66.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -425 and for Texas A&M at +340.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas A&M +11.5
• LSU to win -425
• Bet under 66.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also prefer the Tigers to hold off the Aggies.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that LSU will win the game in 68.9 percent of its simulations, while Texas A&M wins out in the remaining 31.1 percent of sims.

By taking each team's projected scoring margin per game into account, the computer predicts that LSU will defeat Texas A&M by 4.7 points, or by 5 points if we round up, still not enough to cover the line.

Bet on LSU vs. Texas A&M here

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Texas A&M at LSU game time

When: Sat., Nov. 25
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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