LSU vs. Wisconsin: 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl as LSU and Wisconsin face off in this SEC vs. Big Ten clash in college football's New Year's bowl schedule

Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy as the best individual player in college football this season, but the quarterback has opted out of bowl season to prepare for the draft, leaving Garrett Nussmeier to start for No. 13 LSU against challenger Wisconsin in this notable SEC vs. Big Ten clash in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl Game.

• LSU: Tigers went 9-3 and finished third in the SEC West after losses to Alabama and Ole Miss after some questionable pass defense much of the year, but making up for it by ranking top-10 nationally in scoring, passing, and rushing production
• Wisconsin: Luke Fickell made his coaching debut for the Badgers in 2023 and scored some notable transfers, but the offense failed to live up to the hype, ranking 104th in scoring offense and 90th in passing

LSU vs. Wisconsin prediction, preview

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2024 ReliaQuest Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: LSU -9
Total: 57.5 points
Moneyline: LSU -340 | UW +270
FPI pick: LSU 81.4% to win

What to watch for

1. The magic number. Wisconsin is 7-0 this season when it runs for more than 105 yards, and is 0-5 when it fails to reach that mark on the ground. Lead back Braelon Allen won't play as he turns pro, and backup Chez Mellusi is out with an injury. Who's left? It looks like sophomore Jackson Acker and redshirt freshman Cade Yacamelli, who combined for 360 yards and a touchdown. That inexperience could pose a problem: if the Badgers can't mix in some gains on the ground to help its sluggish air game, it could get ugly quick.

2. Third down. LSU is susceptible in any phase of defense, coming in 100th against the pass and 101st in total production. Its relative strength is against the run, where it ranks 91st nationally, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 23 touchdowns. But third down defense is a genuine concern: LSU is 117th in that phase, allowing opponents to convert 45.3 percent of their chances. Working behind a customarily strong offensive line, Wisconsin moves the chains 46 percent of the time on the money down, but that was at full strength.

3. Change at QB. The loss of Jayden Daniels is important and will cut into LSU's usually superb offensive output, but the backup option comes highly regarded. Garrett Nussmeier has patiently waited for his turn, and the bowl game will give LSU a more detailed look into what its presumptive 2024 starting quarterback can do. Although limited on experience, he does have full knowledge of the offensive system and analysts are impressed with his arm strength and deeper field accuracy.

LSU vs. Wisconsin prediction

The prospect of relying on LSU's defense to win a game without having Jayden Daniels on the other side is usually a genuine cause for concern. 

But the quality of its backup quarterback and receivers, and Wisconsin's personnel losses and lack of a credible downfield threat, should allow the Tigers to pull away in the second half.

College Football HQ picks...

• LSU wins 31-14
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

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