March Madness 2023 Picks Today: College Basketball First-Round Predictions

Basketball Power Index picks Friday's first-round March Madness games

The first round of the 2023 NCAA College Basketball Tournament got off to a big start this week with two major upsets as Virginia and Arizona both went down in surprising fashion.

Are there any more upsets in store as the first round comes to its conclusion?

College Basketball Power Index, the analytic metric created by ESPN, is a measure of team strength that predicts games by using strength of record, accomplishment, opponent strength, pace of play, site, rest, and altitude among other factors to make picks.

Here's your look at the picks for Friday's first round games.

March Madness 2023 Picks Today: College Basketball First Round Predictions

TCU vs. Arizona State. The Sun Devils took down Nevada by 25 points while the Horned Frogs were one of the Big 12's best finishers. BPI pick: TCU 68%

Montana State vs. Kansas State. The third-place finisher in the Big 12 this season, analysts project K-State to take this game easily. BPI pick: Kansas State 83.9%

Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga. Predictors strongly favor the Zags, led by intrepid power forward/center Drew Timme, good for almost 21 points per game this season. BPI pick: Gonzaga 87.8%

FAU vs. Memphis. Expect a closer game to close out the first round with the AAC tourney champs getting the slight edge. BPI pick: Memphis 57.8%

Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue. It's a tough region for the Boilermakers to play through so it's imperative to impress in this game to avoid being the next big upset. BPI pick: Purdue 98.6%

Marquette vs. Vermont. Shaka Smart is yet to win an NCAA tournament game with the Eagles, but this might be his best roster. BPI pick: Marquette 85.5%

UConn vs. Iona. The Huskies are comfortable favorites in the first round as Dan Hurley looks to win his first-ever first-round game. BPI pick: UConn 82.6%

NC State vs. Creighton. With one of the tournament's best lineups loaded with future NBA talent, Creighton is a big favorite against a Wolfpack team that lost early in the ACC tourney. BPI pick: Creighton 74%

Pitt vs. Iowa State. The Cyclones are close favorites against a Panthers team that won by a single point in the First Four game. BPI pick: Iowa State 67.1%

Kennesaw State vs. Xavier. Souley Boum is one of the top players in the game. When he's in top form, Xavier is hard to beat. BPI pick: Xavier 89.7%

VCU vs. St. Mary's. The index projects a close game but one that will go in the Gaels' favor. BPI pick: St. Mary's 65.5%

UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor. If Jalen Bridges can get in a rhythm, it'll be hard to stop the Bears. BPI pick: Baylor 90.5%

Miami vs. Drake. The Hurricanes had a strong finish to the season by winning seven straight but also split its last four outings. BPI pick: Miami 56.1%

USC vs. Michigan State. The bookmakers favor Sparty by a very narrow margin and it's tough to beat Tom Izzo in March. BPI pick: Michigan State 59.3%

Kentucky vs. Providence. All eyes on John Calipari after some clunky finishes, but UK has the roster to avoid the upset. BPI pick: Kentucky 63.8%

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