Michigan vs. Maryland score prediction by college football computer model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Maryland in this Week 12 college football game

A pair of Big Ten East rivals meet up this weekend, one coming in undefeated and a favorite to make the College Football Playoff, and another hoping to avoid a sixth straight loss and pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season as No. 3 Michigan hits the road against Maryland in Saturday's Week 12 action.

• Michigan held off Penn State in a statement road game against a ranked conference opponent to stay undefeated at 10-0
• Wolverines rank No. 1 nationally by allowing just 7.5 points per game from opponents this season
• Maryland started 5-0 behind another characteristically productive passing offense with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa returning
• But the Terrapins went on to lose five straight games and only just edged Nebraska to avoid what would have been a sixth last week

What can we make of the game? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a projection for when the Wolverines tangle with the Terrapins.

Michigan vs. Maryland predictions

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Wolverines to stay undefeated here.

SP+ forecasts that Michigan will beat Maryland by a projected score of 34 to 14 and win the game by an expected 20.9 points.

The model gives the Wolverines an 89 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.

Point spread

Michigan is a 21 point favorite against Maryland, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -1200 and for Maryland at +750.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Maryland +21
• Michigan to win -1200
• Under 50.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also expect the Wolverines to win the game handily.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Michigan will win the game in 90.8 percent of its simulations, while Maryland comes out the winner in the remaining 9.2 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts Michigan will defeat Maryland by 21.5 points, or 22 if we round up, enough to cover the line, but very close.

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Michigan at Maryland game time

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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