Michigan vs. Michigan State football game preview, prediction

Predictions for Michigan vs. Michigan State in this Big Ten football classic

A pair of long-time in-state Big Ten rivals meet this weekend heading in apparently opposite directions as defending conference champion, No. 2 ranked Michigan hits the road against last-place Michigan State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.

Sitting in the Big Ten East basement, the Spartans are 2-4 overall but 0-3 in conference play, undergoing a surprise coaching change, and ranking 111th in rushing and 108th in scoring this season.

Michigan is the back-to-back Big Ten champion and a two-time College Football Playoff entrant with the nation's 10th ranked scoring attack and the No. 1 scoring defense.

Michigan vs. Michigan State preview, prediction

Michigan vs. Michigan State game predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Michigan vs. Michigan State odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Michigan -23.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: UM -5000 | MSU +950
FPI pick: Michigan 93.1% to win

What to watch for

1. Third down. Granted, the Spartans don't do a lot well right now, but one category they're elite in is defending against the third down. MSU holds opponents to just 24.7 percent success rate on the money down, allowing only 19 conversions on 77 attempts, ranking 3rd nationally in that phase. This will be a strength-on-strength battle, as Michigan is 4th-best on third down, but on offense, converting 55.4 percent of the time, moving the chains 41 times on 77 tries.

2. Turnover battle. Advantage, Michigan. The Wolverines come in ranked 11th in FBS with a plus-7 turnover margin, with 4 of their 5 turnovers all year coming in 1 game. Michigan State is 125th nationally at minus-six on the year, giving the ball away 15 times, the 3rd most of any team in the country.

3. Battle at the line. Michigan State plays a relatively strong run defense this season, ranking 32nd nationally by holding teams to just under 115 yards per game on the ground and an average of just 3.5 yards per touch. Michigan averages 4.9 yards per carry on offense, a drop from the 5.6 mark it had a year ago. Watch how well the Wolverines are able to create running lanes against the Spartans' front seven blockers.

Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction

Michigan's stout front seven rotation should gain an early advantage against the Spartans' protection and in particular against quarterback Katin Houser, who will be making his second career start. 

And while the Spartans play just good enough defense to keep it closer-than-expected early, Michigan has the pieces to open things up in the second half and pull away.

College Football HQ picks...

• Michigan wins 40-17
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

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