Michigan vs. Michigan State score prediction by college football computer model

What the analytics predict Michigan vs. Michigan State in this Big Ten football classic

This weekend brings us a Big Ten football rivalry from the Wolverine State with the Paul Bunyan Trophy up for grabs as No. 2 ranked and undefeated Michigan hits the road against Michigan State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.

Michigan has posted at least 50 points in the last two games and moved to 4-0 in Big Ten play thanks to the nation's 10th ranked scoring offense and the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in college football.

Sparty is going through it, parting ways with head coach Mel Tucker amid harassment allegations and sitting in the East Division basement at 0-3 in league play and 2-4 overall, dropping the last four overall.

What do the analytics expect for the matchup? For that, let's check in with the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly to make a score prediction.

Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction

Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations strongly favor Michigan to defeat Michigan State in this year's game.

SP+ projects that Michigan will win the matchup by a projected score of 34 to 14, giving the Wolverines a comfortable margin of victory of 19.5 points in the matchup.

The model gives Michigan a confident 87 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to Michigan State at 13 percent overall.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it? So far, the model is 188-178-10 overall (51.3%) and is 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%) this season.

Point spread

Michigan is a 24.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 48.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Michigan State +24.5
• Michigan on the ML at -5000
• Bet under 48.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also project Michigan will win the game comfortably.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick game winners.

The index estimates Michigan will win the game in 93.1 percent of its simulations, compared to Michigan State winning in the remaining 6.9 percent of sims.

FPI projects Michigan will defeat MSU by 23.6 points, or by rounding up, by an expected 24 points, still not enough to cover the line.

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Michigan at Michigan State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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