Michigan vs. Penn State Game Prediction, Preview

College Football HQ predictions for Michigan vs. Penn State in a landmark Big Ten game

Already one of the most impactful games on the late-season schedule, the battle between reigning Big Ten champion Michigan and East Division hopeful Penn State got a lot more interesting after the conference suspended coach Jim Harbaugh amid an ongoing probe into an alleged sign-stealing scheme.

Exactly how the Wolverines will perform in the absence of their leader in by far their most difficult game to date will only be known when the ball is in the air. Michigan has discarded every team on its easy schedule with ease, leading college football beating teams by an average of 34 points each time out.

• Penn State has scored 30-plus points in every game but one, its loss to Ohio State
• Lions scored 84 points in the last two games
• A win over Michigan doesn't clinch the East, as PSU needs the Buckeyes to lose a game eventually, too
• Game features No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses in college football
• Michigan back Blake Corum leads FBS with 16 total touchdowns
• Wolverines have scored at least 40 points in each of the last six games
• UM's closest game was a 24-point win over Rutgers

Michigan vs. Penn State preview, prediction

Michigan vs. Penn State predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Michigan vs. Penn State game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Michigan -4.5
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: UM -200 | PSU +150
FPI pick: Penn State 50.4% to win

What you need to know

• Michigan leads the Big Ten in scoring with 40.7 points per game on average
• Wolverines are also 1st in the conference with 6.8 yards per play on offense
• Penn State allows just 60.3 rushing yards per game on average
• Michigan is No. 1 in the Big Ten with 141 plays of 10-plus yards
• And it's hitting on 55.6 percent of third-down conversion attempts
• Nittany Lions allowing 6.7 points per game and 4.2 yards per play
• PSU has 119 plays of 10-plus yards and converts 42.2% of third downs
• And is No. 1 in B1G in defensive success rate with a strong front seven

Michigan vs. Penn State prediction

Say what you will about Michigan's strength of schedule, but it has passed all those tests with flying colors. This week's matchup will be a genuine test, however. Michigan hasn't faced a defense this dominant or agile all year, and it will be pushed back with some regularity by the Lions' skilled front seven rotation.

But the Wolverines present a formidable challenge of their own at the line of scrimmage, boasting a defensive front seven that should gain an early advantage against a Penn State protective unit that has not played quite up to expectation. 

Combine that with the fact that the Lions have one of the least dynamic-performing offenses in college football, and Michigan's own big-play ability with the edge at the key skill positions, and the defending Big Ten champs have the ingredients to stay perfect. The line is close enough to compensate for Harbaugh's absence, too.

College Football HQ picks...

• Michigan wins 26-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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