Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, Quick Lane Bowl prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Quick Lane Bowl as Minnesota takes on Bowling Green

After taking a two-day break over the Christmas holidays, the annual College Football Bowl Season resumes its schedule on Tuesday, with three games on tap, including the 2023 Quick Lane Bowl live from Detroit, pitting Group of Five school Bowling Green out of the MAC against Minnesota out of the Big Ten.

Despite winning five games, one shy of becoming bowl eligible, the Golden Gophers earned a spot in the postseason because they had the highest academic progress rate among all the five-win teams in college football. That leaves Minnesota as the one school with a losing record (5-7) to qualify for a bowl game this year.

Bowling Green — which beat the Gophers as a 31-point underdog two years ago — started this season just 1-3 but pulled it together midseason and finished 6-2, including a statement victory over a Power Five team in Georgia Tech.

Minnesota vs. Bowling Green prediction, preview

When: Tues., Dec. 26
Time: 2 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Quick Lane Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Minnesota -3
Total: 39.5 points
Moneyline: UM -165 | BG +140
FPI pick: Minnesota 60.1% to win

What to watch for

1. Discipline. One of these teams has it, and the other doesn't. Bowling Green comes into the game ranked 113th nationally in penalties committed, and Minnesota ranks 2nd in that category. The Falcons are also 116th in penalty yards accrued per game, while the Golden Gophers are 3rd in the country in that department. 

2. Change at QB. Athan Kaliakmanis entered the transfer portal, as did Gophers third-string Drew Viotto, meaning Minnesota is down to one scholarship player at the position, Cole Kramer. He's in his fifth season with the program, but he's only attempted 14 career passes. That helps explain the low total: the Gophers come in 122nd nationally in total offense, mustering just 4.8 yards per play. Bowling Green isn't much more productive, sitting at 102nd with 5.4 yards on average per snap.

3. Battle at the line. Being without its starting quarterback, expect Minnesota to run the ball early and often, both as a means to control the tempo and lend credibility to the play-action game. And when it does, the Falcons could struggle, coming into the game ranked 108th in run defense per play and 106th nationally in defensive rushing success rate. Gophers back Darius Taylor started off hot, running for over 130 yards in three straight games, but injuries kept him out of 6 of the last 7, though it's expected he'll return for the bowl.

Minnesota vs. Bowling Green prediction

Bowling Green can play two quarterbacks, each with differing styles and its receivers get most of their production by generating yards after the catch, something to watch as the Gophers are dealing with injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. But the Falcons' leading receiver, tailback Ta'Ron Keith, is in the portal.

Minnesota has lost four straight games, while Bowling Green won five of the last six, and although it's easy to say the Power Five team has more talent, personnel losses will keep this matchup close, especially against a solid MAC team that has a history of beating apparently overmatched competition.

College Football HQ picks...

• Minnesota wins 19-17
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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