NC State vs. Kansas State: Pop-Tarts Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl as NC State and Kansas State square off in the latest installment of College Football Bowl Season

One of the two games featuring a head-to-head matchup of teams in the top 25 rankings is set for Thursday as the second half of College Football Bowl Season gets underway in the days leading up to the new year. NC State comes in ranked No. 18 in the latest CFP poll and goes against No. 25 Kansas State in the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl.

• NC State: Wolfpack started 4-3 but won the last five straight games and finished third in the ACC standings and are 101st in passing
• Kansas State: After starting 6-2 and winning three straight midseason, the Wildcats dropped 2 of the last 4

NC State vs. Kansas State prediction, preview

When: Thurs., Dec. 28
Time: 5:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Pop-Tarts Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Kansas State -3
Total: 47.5 points
Moneyline: KSU -150 | NC St +130
FPI pick: Kansas State 74.9% to win

What to watch for

1. Wildcats on the ground. The absence of quarterback Will Howard, who entered the transfer portal, means that K-State will turn to Avery Johnson, a talented freshman who played in 7 games this year, throwing for 3 TDs and rushing for 6 more. He's part of a ground attack that ranks 13th nationally with just under 200 yards per game, posting 4.86 yards per carry, and scoring 30 touchdowns in total.

2. Wolfpack on defense. If rushing the ball is KSU's strength, then stopping it is NC State's. The Wolfpack rank 15th nationally in run defense, surrendering 104 yards to opposing backs for an average of 3.71 ypc and just 11 rushing touchdowns. One notable absence will be Bednarik and Butkus Award winner Payton Wilson, but there are other veteran pieces at linebacker who can pick up the slack, including Jaylon Scott. NC State allows just over 20 points per game.

3. Turnovers. Both these teams are good at keeping their hands on the ball, and each come into the game tied at No. 8 nationally with a plus-10 turnover margin. NC State has lost 14 and gained 24, and Kansas State has lost 12 and gained 22. The Wildcats have turned the ball over multiple times just twice, and went 0-2 in those games.

Kansas State vs. NC State prediction

Don't expect a lot of points in this game, as both teams will want to emphasize running the football and lean on their defenses. That could tilt things in the Wildcats' favor, as they're the more efficient running team, but the Wolfpack have the advantage at quarterback and can punctuate drives by hitting bigger plays in the air when needed. 

College Football HQ picks...

• NC State wins 27-24
• In an upset
• And hits the under

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