Nebraska vs. Minnesota game prediction, preview: Who wins, and why?

Locking in our game prediction for Nebraska vs. Minnesota as the Week 1 college football schedule kicks off on Thursday night

Week 1 of the 2023 college football season brings us an intriguing battle coming out of the Big Ten with a pair of West Division rivals squaring off on the same field in the opener as Minnesota welcomes new-look Nebraska on Thursday night football.

The game will be our first glimpse at what Matt Rhule has been up to rebuilding the Cornhuskers program, long down on its luck for most of the 21st century, but hoping Rhule, who built a reputation as a turnaround artist at Temple and Baylor, will bring the right stuff and return a proud program back into national relevance.

What can we expect from the game? Here's what you need to know about the matchup from Minneapolis, along with our latest prediction for the matchup.

Nebraska vs. Minnesota game picks, predictions

Week 1 Nebraska vs. Minnesota predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Thurs., Aug. 31
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

Nebraska vs. Minnesota odds, lines

Line: Minnesota -7.5
Total: 43.5 points
Moneyline: NU +200 | UM -275
FPI pick: Minnesota 67.1%

Related: Cornhuskers vs. Gophers picks, predictions, Week 1 college football odds, betting lines

What to watch for

Nebraska wins if: It can stop the Gophers' attempt to control the ground game early on. Front seven play is the perceived weakness of this Cornhusker team as it brings on some new transfers and installs a new system, and will have its hands full against UM transfer back Sean Tyler, who was 9th in FBS with 147 all-purpose yards per game a year ago. Meanwhile, Nebraska needs to tighten things up on the O-line to protect quarterback Jeff Sims, who has the athleticism to ab-lib if he has to, but that can't be the basis of this offense.

Minnesota wins if: It holds the line defensively and maintains possession by running the ball consistently. Minnesota should have the edge at the line when on offense and Tyler has been highly productive whenever employed. Plus, the Gophers return some credible receiving threats, led by Chris Autman-Bell, and return a defense that ranked No. 8 nationally overall and fourth in scoring and can get to the quarterback.

Fast Facts

+ Gophers allowed 16 or fewer points in 18 games the last 2 years, 2nd best in FBS behind only Georgia

+Each of the last 7 meetings between these teams was decided by 7 points, with Minnesota winning each game

+ 5 of the last 9 have been one-score games

+ Minnesota surrendered just 8 runs of 20 yards, 10th best nationally

+ NU quarterback Jeff Sims had 233.7 total yards per game in his career

+ Sims is 1 of 14 FBS quarterbacks  with 4,000 career pass yards and 1,000 rush yards

+ Minnesota has held 17 opponents to 300 or fewer yards of offense since 2021

Nebraska vs. Minnesota prediction

Nebraska will get aggressive to start the game and show off some of what Sims can do, but Minnesota still owns the defensive advantages in every phase, will come through more often on third down situations, keep the Huskers from scoring points, and get to the quarterback and force him to improvise.

From there, the Gophers will control the tempo and clock with a consistent rushing attack and wear down the Cornhuskers' front seven to a close win.

College Football HQ prediction: Minnesota beats Nebraska, 24-16, covers the spread, and hits the under.

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