North Carolina vs. Clemson score prediction, game pick

What the analytics predict for North Carolina vs. Clemson in this Week 12 college football game

ACC rivals meet up in Death Valley this weekend as No. 20 North Carolina hits the road in the hopes of making headway in the conference championship picture against unranked Clemson in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.

• Carolina is technically still in the ACC title race, but has to win this game and get some help from the outside as Louisville sits at No. 2
• UNC leads the ACC in offense with almost 40 points per game
• And quarterback Drake Maye tops the league with 314 passing yards per game
• Clemson has won two straight games
• Tigers lead back Will Shipley is expected to return after sitting out with a concussion after being knocked out in the NC State game
• Tar Heels have struggled in the fourth quarter recently

What can we make of the game? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

North Carolina vs. Clemson prediction

The simulations are siding with the home team here, but by the slimmest of margins.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat North Carolina by a projected score of 29 to 28 and win the game by an expected 1.2 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 53 percent chance to win outright against the Heels.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.

Point spread

Clemson is an 8 point favorite against North Carolina, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 59.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Clemson at -300 and for North Carolina at +250.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• North Carolina +8
• Clemson to win -300
• Bet under 59.5

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also project Clemson to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Clemson will win the game outright in 60.7 percent of its simulations, while North Carolina comes out ahead in the remaining 39.3 percent of sims.

The computer projects that Clemson will win the game by 1.6 points, still not enough to cover the line.

Bet on North Carolina vs. Clemson here

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North Carolina at Clemson game time

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)'

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