Notre Dame vs. Navy game prediction, preview
The 2023 college football season begins — where else? — in Dublin, Ireland, as Notre Dame meets up with traditional rival Navy in the first game on the schedule. Sam Hartman steps in at quarterback for the Fighting Irish after transferring in from Wake, where he established a record for the most passing touchdowns in ACC history, while the Midshipmen embark on their first season under new coach Brian Newberry.
Related: Week 0 college football picks against the spread
Here's what you need to know about the game, along with our prediction for the winner coming out of Week 0 on the Emerald Isle.
Notre Dame vs. Navy football preview, prediction
What to expect as Notre Dame and Navy open the Week 0 college football schedule
USA Today Images
How to watch
When: Sat., Aug. 26
Time: 2:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Navy vs. Notre Dame odds
According to SI Sportsbook
Line: Notre Dame -20.5
Total: 48.5
Moneyline: ND -1613 | Navy +700
FPI prediction: Notre Dame has the 95.3 percent chance to win the game against Navy, according to the power index computer model that projects winners by simulating games 20,000 times.
More: Navy vs. Notre Dame score prediction by college football computer
Notre Dame vs. Navy: What to watch
1. Hartman. The difference by far in this game is Notre Dame's overwhelming advantage at quarterback, a well-traveled veteran who should find throwing lanes against a Navy secondary that was 11th in the AAC in pass efficiency and 98th overall against the pass last year. Hartman has nearly 13,000 career passing yards with 110 career TD passes against 41 INTs and is coming off a 63.1 percent campaign for 3,701 yards.
2. Navy on the ground. Returning for the Midshipmen is junior fullback Daba Fofana, who ran for 769 yards and six touchdowns while posting 4.1 yards per carry on average. And against the Irish last fall, he went for 133 yards on 15 carries and a score and figures to lead a group that averaged more than 241 yards on the ground per game. ND returns experience up front and one of the nation's better linebacker groups on a unit that was 37th against the run last season.
3. Irish can run, too. Working behind one of college football's best lines, Notre Dame's Audric Estime will test the Midshipmen run defense. The junior tailback led the team in rushing last season, with 156 carries for 920 yards and 11 touchdowns (5.9 avg), and he went over 100 yards in three games.
Notre Dame vs. Navy: What you need to know
+ Notre Dame is 14-0 when intercepting a pass dating back to 2021, the longest streak among FBS teams, shared with Georgia and Coastal Carolina
+ Navy was 4-1 when its opponent didn't score on its first drive and 0-7 when it did last season
+ Sam Hartman has thrown 77 touchdown passes in the last two years, the most of any quarterback in the Power Five
+ Opponents outscored Navy 81-43 in the first quarter a year ago
+ ND owns a margin of victory of 33.5 points over Navy when playing in Ireland
+ Navy was 3rd in NCAA with 19 yards per pass completion in 2022
+ Notre Dame has won 5 of its last 6 season openers
+ Midshipmen were 4th in NCAA a year ago with 241.2 rushing yards per game
+ Irish are 38-5 in games where they score first in the opener since 1958 and are 14-6 when the opponent scores first
+ Navy had 34 sacks in 2022, the most in school history
+ ND has finished with a winning record in 93.5 percent of seasons (102 of 109) when it wins the opening game
+ Notre Dame is 16-2 when a back rushes for 100 yards since 2021
Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction
New play-callers and players on both sides will add to the intrigue of the season opener, but whatever strategic changes Navy has made, it's still not enough to clamp down the deeper two-thirds of the field where Hartman and his receivers will have the decided advantage. Notre Dame could struggle at first containing the Midshipmen backs, but will settle in with its superior run stop while the Irish establish their own runners to protect the early lead Hartman should give them.
College Football HQ Prediction: Notre Dame 36-13
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
More from College Football HQ ⬇