Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction by football expert model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Michigan in this college football classic

Two of college football's fiercest rivals meet up in the 2023 regular season finale with everything to play for, both undefeated, each playing some of the nation's best defense, and both looking ahead to the national championship race. In a game that always means everything, this one means even more.

• Michigan has won the last two against Ohio State, employing a big-play offense and surpassing 40 points in each of those games
• And the Wolverines used those results to advance to, and win, the Big Ten Championship Game and make the College Football Playoff
• A similar fate awaits the winner of this year's matchup, to represent the East Division against challenger Iowa for the league title next week
• And from there, would be a sure thing for the playoff as undefeated conference champion

What can we make of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction

The simulations favor a third-straight victory for the home team in this one.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Ohio State by a projected score of 26 to 20 and to win the game by a projected 6.1 points.

The model gives the Wolverines a 64 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Michigan is a 3.5 point favorite against Ohio State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -165 and for Ohio State at +140.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Michigan -3.5
• Michigan to win -165
• Bet under 46.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools are also picking Michigan to take down the Buckeyes.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Michigan will win the game in 55.2 percent of its simulations, while Ohio State wins out in the remaining 44.8 percent of sims.

The computer predicts a very close game, indicating just how evenly matched the teams appear to be, suggesting that Michigan will beat Ohio State by just 0.3 points.

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Ohio State at Michigan game time

When: Sat., Nov. 25
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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