Ohio State vs. Penn State game score prediction

What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Penn State in this major Big Ten rivalry

A statement will be made this weekend when No. 7 Penn State goes on the road against No. 3 Ohio State in a battle of top-10 ranked, undefeated Big Ten East rivals with a ton on the line in college football's Week 8 action this Saturday.

The biggest obstacles for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been the Buckeyes and Michigan, and this week is their first major test to see if they can clear those hurdles. So far, not so good: Franklin is 1-8 against Ohio State.

Ohio State's offense is loaded with playmakers, but also dealing with injuries at the running back position and will go against a Penn State defense that ranks 1st overall in the Big Ten both against the pass and the run.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly to make a score prediction. 

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction

Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations favor Ohio State in a close game.

This week, the model forecasts that the Buckeyes will defeat Penn State by a projected score of 27 to 22, an expected point margin of 5.6 points.

The model gives Ohio State the 63 percent chance to win the game outright, compared with Penn State at 37 percent overall.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the model is 188-178-10 overall (51.3%) and is 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%).

Point spread

Ohio State is a 4.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Ohio State -4.5
• OSU moneyline -200
• Over 45.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor Ohio State to defeat Penn State.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick game winners.

The index predicts Ohio State will win in 63.5 percent of the simulations, and picks Penn State in 36.5 percent of the remaining projections.

FPI projects Ohio State will win the game by 2.6 points, or by rounding up, by a field goal, based on its projected scoring margin for each team.

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Penn State at Ohio State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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