Ohio State vs. Wisconsin score prediction by college football analytic model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin in this Week 9 college football game

Big Ten football goes under the lights in a cross-divisional matchup pitting West Division leader Wisconsin at home against No. 3 ranked, undefeated Ohio State on Saturday.

• Wisconsin is 3-1 in Big Ten play and sits in first-place in the West despite losing to Iowa, which has two losses in conference games
• Badgers needed an 18-point fourth quarterback comeback to take down Illinois
• Buckeyes moved to 7-0 overall and 4-0 in Big Ten games after a statement win over East rival Penn State last week
• Ohio State sits at 3rd in scoring defense allowing 10 points per game but ranks 101st in rushing with prominent injuries at running back
• What can we expect in this matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin predictions

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game prediction, pick / USA Today Images

The simulations favor Ohio State to defeat Wisconsin and stay undefeated this week.

SP+ predicts that the Buckeyes will take down the Badgers by a projected score of 28 to 19 with an expected point margin of 9.1 points in the game.

The model suggests Ohio State has a 70 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Ohio State is a 14.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds as Ohio State -800 and Wisconsin +450.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Wisconsin +14.5
• OSU on the ML at -800
• Bet over 45.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytic tools also forecast Ohio State will beat Wisconsin.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index revealed that Ohio State wins out in 88 percent of its simulations, or 17,600 of its simulations. Wisconsin wins in the remaining 12 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's expected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts Ohio State will beat Wisconsin by 18.9 points, or if we round it up, by an expected 19 points in the game.

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Ohio State at Wisconsin schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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