Oklahoma vs. Kansas score prediction by college football analytic model

Expert predictions for Oklahoma vs. Kansas by the analytical models that pick game winners

A border rivalry renews this weekend in the Big 12 as conference leader, undefeated, and No. 6 ranked Oklahoma goes on the road against two-loss Kansas on Saturday.

• OU held off UCF at home last week in a close, 2-point decision
• Sooners thwarted a 2-point conversion as time expired to stay undefeated
• Oklahoma moved to 4-0 in Big 12 play and stayed at No. 1 in the league
• Kansas has dropped 2 of the last 3 after starting 4-0
• Jayhawks boast the nation's 18th ranked scoring offense and 12th best rushing attack
• What can we expect from the game? Let's turn to SP+ prediction model

Oklahoma vs. Kansas prediction

Oklahoma vs. Kansas game predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The models forecast Oklahoma will defeat Kansas on the road this weekend.

SP+ estimates the Sooners will beat the Jayhawks by a projected score of 36 to 27 by a forecasted scoring margin of 9.6 points in the game, or 10 points by rounding up.

The model gives OU a 71 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Oklahoma is a 9.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 65.5 points in the game.

SI lists the moneyline as Oklahoma -350 and Kansas +250.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oklahoma -9.5
• OU on the ML at -350
• Bet under 65.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models favor Oklahoma to win the game outright.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts Oklahoma to win the game in 87.4 percent of its simulations, or 17,480 of the projections. 

KU wins out in the remaining 12.6 percent of sims, or the other 2,520 predictions.

By taking the difference between the FPI's projected scoring margin for each team, the computer predicts Oklahoma will defeat Kansas by 19.6 points, or by 20 points if we round up.

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Oklahoma at Kansas schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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