Oklahoma vs. TCU score prediction by college football expert model
The clock is ticking on when Oklahoma will finally depart the Big 12 Conference and become a fully-fledged member of the SEC starting in the summer of 2024, with just one regular season game left as the No. 13 ranked Sooners welcome TCU in college football's Week 13 action on Friday.
- OU needs a win here to stay in contention for the Big 12 title game, but also for a ton of chaos around the league for that to be a realistic possibility
- In addition to a win, the Sooners also need Texas to beat Texas Tech and for Oklahoma State to lose against BYU in the finale
- Oklahoma ranks No. 4 nationally by scoring 40.8 points per game on average and boasts the 7th ranked passing offense behind quarterback Dillon Gabriel
- Horned Frogs are just 3-5 in conference play, losing three of the last four and five of the last seven overall
- TCU is 9th nationally in passing output but 55th in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score just over 24 points per game
What can we expect in the game? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.
Oklahoma vs. TCU prediction
The simulations favor the Sooners to hold serve at home this week.
SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat TCU by a projected score of 34 to 23 and win the game by an expected 10.6 points.
The model gives OU a 73 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.
Point spread
Oklahoma is a 9.5 point favorite against TCU, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 63.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for OU at -420 and for TCU at +320.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Oklahoma -9.5
- OU to win -420
- Bet under 63.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic models also suggest the Sooners will win the game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index suggests that Oklahoma will win the game in 84.4 percent of its simulations, while TCU will win out in the remaining 15.6 percent of sims.
The computer predicts that Oklahoma will defeat TCU by 12.2 points, enough to cover the line.
TCU at Oklahoma game time
When: Fri., Nov. 24
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams