Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction by college football computer model
One of the most storied football rivalries in the SEC renews this weekend as the Egg Bowl returns to Starkville with Mississippi State playing host to Ole Miss on Thanksgiving, with one team looking to finish the regular season with 10 wins and the another looking for a new head coach.
- MSU parted ways with Zach Arnett less than a full season into his tenure after the Bulldogs went just 1-6 in SEC play and ranked 114th in passing production
- State scored under 20 points in six games this season
- Ole Miss is second in the SEC West at 9-2 overall and 5-2 in SEC play with losses to the teams playing for the league title, Alabama and Georgia
- Rebels are 7-0 this season when they score 30 points in a game and are 16th nationally in both scoring average and passing output
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction
The simulations favor the Rebels to come out ahead in this year's Egg Bowl.
SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 34 to 21 and win the game by an expected 13.5 points.
The model gives the Rebels a 78 percent chance of outright victory over MSU.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.
Point spread
Ole Miss is a 10 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -380 and for MSU at +300.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take
- Ole Miss -10
- Rebs to win -380
- Bet under 55.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic models also predict Ole Miss will win the game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index projects Ole Miss will win the game in 82.2 percent of its simulations, while Mississippi State comes out ahead in the remaining 17.8 percent of sims.
The computer predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Mississippi State by 14.7 points, enough to cover the line this week.
Bet on Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State here
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Egg Bowl 2023 game time
When: Thurs., Nov. 23
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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