Oregon vs. North Carolina picks, predictions: Holiday Bowl schedule, odds, lines

Picks and predictions for the Holiday Bowl between Oregon and North Carolina as the college football bowl schedule inches towards the national championship

College football season continues in the days after Christmas with Power Five teams getting in on the action. On Wednesday, Oregon and North Carolina will meet in this year's Holiday Bowl.

Both schools come in with a chance to finish the season with 10 wins: Oregon lost two of the last three, including to rival Oregon State, while North Carolina dropped its last three straight, most recently against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

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This matchup pits two of college football's top quarterbacks against each other on the same field: Oregon's Bo Nix, the dynamic dual threat who helped spearhead an eight-game win streak while scoring 40 points in each of those games, and North Carolina's Drake Maye, who is third nationally in passing after going over 4,000 yards and a projected first round NFL Draft pick in 2024.

Both will appear in the Holiday Bowl after announcing they will return to their respective schools for the 2023 football season.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina picks, predictions

Oregon vs. North Carolina Holiday Bowl predictions, picks / USA Today Images

Oregon prediction: The computer is siding comfortably with the Ducks, who have the 69.5 percent chance to win the game outright.

North Carolina prediction: That leaves the Tar Heels with the remaining 30.5 percent edge to pull off the upset, according to the index projections.

Point spread: Oregon -13 (-118) | North Carolina +13 (-110) according to SI Sportsbook.

Total: 75 points | Over -118 | Under -110

Moneyline: Oregon -568 | North Carolina +370

Spread consensus pick: Oregon -13

Oregon ATS record: 8-4

North Carolina ATS record: 5-7-1

Oregon betting trends: "Oregon was 4-0 against the spread when favored by 14 or more points this season. The over was also 7-5 in Ducks games, though it only hit once in their last four games." — Kyle Wood, Sports Illustrated

North Carolina betting trends: "North Carolina went 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year with its only loss coming in the conference title game. The under hit in four of the Tar Heels' final five games." — Wood

Score prediction: Team Rankings estimates that Oregon will defeat North Carolina by a projected score of 44.2 to 30.2 (Oregon -13, Under 75)

How to watch, stream: The game is set for Wed., Dec. 28 at 8 p.m. Eastern and 5 p.m. Pacific on the main Fox network and streams on fuboTV (Try for free).

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Utah
9. Kansas State
10. USC
11. Penn State
12. Washington
13. Florida State
14. Oregon State
15. Oregon
16. Tulane
17. LSU
18. UCLA
19. South Carolina
20. Texas
21. Notre Dame
22. Mississippi State
23. NC State
24. Troy
25. UTSA

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