Oregon vs. Liberty: Fiesta Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2024 Fiesta Bowl game as Oregon takes on Liberty as college football bowl season welcomes in the new year

The highest-rated Group of Five team will put itself to the test on New Year's Day in one of the last remaining games on the college football bowl schedule, as No. 23 Liberty lines up against No. 8 ranked, Pac-12 runner-up Oregon in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl Game on Monday afternoon.

• Oregon: Ducks went 11-2 with two losses to Washington, including in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but ranked 2nd in both scoring and passing production
• Liberty: Flames ran the table through 13 games while posting the nation's No. 5 scoring offense that averaged just under 41 points per game

Oregon vs. Liberty prediction, preview

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2024 Fiesta Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Oregon -18
Total: 67.5 points
Moneyline: Ducks -800 | Liberty +550
FPI pick: Oregon 89.9% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Liberty is 5th nationally in total offense thanks largely to its elite rushing attack, a unit that is No. 1 in college football with an average of 302.9 yards per game and tops with 39 rushing touchdowns. It's also 2nd with 6.13 yards per attempt. 

But the Flames haven't played a Power Five team yet this year, while the Ducks held 8 of their last 11 opponents to under 100 rushing yards, and they played three of the top-50 rushing teams in the country this year.

2. Red zone. Liberty was top-50 playing defense in the red zone this year, allowing opponents to score points on 34 of 42 attempts from scoring position. Oregon is 9th nationally by scoring touchdowns in the red area 76.1 percent of the time, while driving inside the 20-yard line 67 times, the second-most, and its 51 touchdowns from close range are the most nationally.

3. Fast starts. Oregon is 3rd nationally in first half offense, scoring an average of 23.9 points in the first half this season. Liberty isn't far behind, ranking 4th in college football by posting 23.7 points in the first half. The Ducks allow 9.8 points to opponents in the first half, and the Flames surrender 11.8 points in that time. Both also average 11 points in the first quarter of games, each ranking 3rd in that category.

Oregon vs. Liberty prediction

Football Power Index rates Liberty's strength of schedule as the worst in the country, and it's something to take into consideration. As is the Flames' relative lack of a credible pass rush and some issues defending against the pass. But this team will be able to generate yards on the ground, even against a strong Ducks front seven.

And while Oregon won't have receiver Troy Franklin on the field, it will have quarterback Bo Nix and lead back Bucky Irving, and its overall talent discrepancy in each matchup on the field will steadily reveal itself as the game progresses.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oregon wins 40-27
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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