Oregon vs. Liberty score prediction by college football expert model

Expert score predictions for the 2024 Fiesta Bowl as Oregon and Liberty meet in one of the most prestigious games in College Football Bowl Season

The class of the Group of Five comes into New Year's Day with a chance to make a huge statement as College Football Bowl Season brings us into 2024, with undefeated Liberty, champion of Conference USA this year, taking on Pac-12 runner-up, No. 8 ranked Oregon in the annual Fiesta Bowl on Monday.

Oregon was the most efficient passing team in college football this season, the 11th best scoring defense, 2nd best scoring attack, and 2nd ranked passing offense, but two losses to CFP-bound Washington, including in the final-ever Pac-12 Championship Game, kept it out of playoff contention. 

Liberty ranked No. 1 nationally by rushing for over 302 yards per game on average, the engine behind an offense that was 5th in scoring, with an average of 40.8 points per game this season.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

Oregon vs. Liberty prediction

The simulations favor the Ducks to take down their Group of Five challenger.

SP+ estimates that Oregon will defeat Liberty by an expected score of 38 to 25 and to win the game by a projected 13.2 points.

The model gives the Ducks a 78 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Oregon is a 16.5 point favorite against Liberty, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 67.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -700 and for Liberty at +500.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Liberty +16.5
• Oregon to win -700
• Bet under 67.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor Oregon to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index favors the Ducks to win the game in 90 percent of its simulations, while the Flames come out ahead in the remaining 10 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margins per game into account, the computer suggests that Oregon will defeat Liberty by 21.5 points, enough to cover the spread.

Bet on Oregon vs. Liberty here

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2024 Fiesta Bowl game time

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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