Oregon vs. Washington football game preview, prediction

A battle between top-10 ranked rivals as Oregon and Washington meet in this critical Week 7 college football game

A battle for second place, and potentially first place, is on the line this weekend from Seattle as a pair of top-10 ranked, undefeated rivals meet with No. 8 Oregon on the road against No. 7 Washington in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.

A win by the Ducks or Huskies, combined with a potential loss by USC on the road at Notre Dame this week, would put the winner of this one in pole position in the Pac-12 standings and the odds-on favorite to win the conference championship.

Both teams are well equipped to make the most of the critical matchup: Washington is No. 1 in college football averaging 569.4 total yards per game, and quarterback Michael Penix is 2nd in yards and 1st in yards per pass, while Oregon is right behind at 2nd overall with 555.8 yards on average working on offense.

Contents

1. Oregon vs. Washington preview, prediction
2. How to watch
3. Oregon vs. Washington game odds
4. What to watch for
5. Oregon vs. Washington prediction
6. Bet on Oregon vs. Washington here

Oregon vs. Washington preview, prediction

Oregon vs. Washington game prediction / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Oregon vs. Washington game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Washington -2.5
Total: 66.5 points
Moneyline: ORE +120 | WAS -150
FPI pick: Oregon 54.9% to win

What to watch for

Oregon vs. Washington picks, predictions / USA Today Images

1. Third down. In a game featuring explosive attacks that could come down to a key stop, the Ducks may have an advantage. Oregon ranks 17th nationally in defense success rate, keeping teams to an average of 4.02 yards for every snap played, and that edge becomes greater on third down. It's 2nd in the Pac-12 keeping opponents to 35.6 percent success, a number that falls to 28.3% in the last 3 games. Washington is 17th on third down offense, while Oregon is 9th best, and the Huskies are 87th in third down defense, allowing 41.3 percent success.

2. Battle at the line. Oregon comes into the game averaging 227.2 rushing yards per game and posts just under 8 yards per touch on the ground, with plenty of variety at the position, moving the ball around to 3 able ball carriers, all of whom are over 7 ypc.

Washington is stronger at the line defensively this season than last, with plenty of experienced pieces who can help close down the interior running lanes and the escape routes to the outside. But pressuring Oregon is a risky business, thanks to its deft quarterback play. Bo Nix is skilled against the blitz: he's 31 of 42 (73%) passing with 9 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating greater than 140.

3. Back and forth. Washington is 2nd nationally with 24 plays of 30-plus yards, 1st with 8.81 yards per play, and 3rd with 46 points per game. Michael Penix is one of college football's most productive passers on a per game and per play basis, and working with two elite receivers: Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, who combine for 7 TD grabs and 42% of Penix's 30-yard throws. 

Oregon can match the Huskies when on the attack thanks to Nix and and a rotation of receivers that includes Troy Franklin, Gary Bryant, Traeshon Holden, and Tez Johnson, who combine for 82 receptions, all combining to average 51.6 points per game and over 8 yards per play on average.

Oregon vs. Washington prediction

Oregon's scrimmage defense might be the difference here. Although the Huskies have protected Penix admirably well, their line did allow 2 of its 3 sacks in the Arizona game when it allowed for more pressure that turned into negative plays. 

Penix can adeptly avoid pressure by getting the ball out of his hands quickly, but he hasn't tried that tact against a pressure group of the Ducks' caliber yet. One weakness that unit has? Generating turnovers. It has none in the last 2 games.

In a game featuring two offenses that are among college football's best, the team that gets the stops on third down, limits success in the red zone, and makes the statement play usually wins out. That appears to be Oregon. But not without some fireworks.

• Oregon wins 38-35
• In an upset
• And hits the over

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