Oregon vs. Washington score prediction for Pac-12 title game by expert model

What the analytics predict for Oregon vs. Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game

Much more than a conference title is on the line this week in Las Vegas as the Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off that league's final title bout before realignment all but destroys it next summer. This time around, as Oregon and Washington meet in a rematch, both will be vying for a shot at the College Football Playoff and from there, a shot at the national championship.

• Washington gave Oregon its only defeat of the season, a 3-point loss in Seattle
• Since then, the Ducks have stayed perfect and rank among college football's best in total offensive and defensive production
• Huskies have been playing close games since the win over Oregon, including a 3-point decision in the Apple Cup to stay undefeated last week
• A win here by Washington should ensure a berth in the College Football Playoff as undefeated conference champion
• And one for Oregon should in all likelihood propel it into the semifinal as the committee's most-favored one-loss team

What can we make of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model and other analytic tools to lock in a projection.

Oregon vs. Washington prediction

The simulations favor the Ducks to avenge their only loss of the season.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Washington by a projected score of 36 to 28 and to win the game by an expected 8.4 points to win the Pac-12 championship.

The model gives the Ducks a 69 percent chance at outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 374-351-14 (51.6%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26-1 (59.2%) last week, its second-best performance of the season to date.

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Point spread

Oregon is a 10 point favorite against Washington, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 66.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -380 and for Washington at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Washington +10
• Oregon to win -380
• Bet under 66.5 points

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Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also project Oregon will win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Oregon will win the game in 75.8 percent of its simulations, while Washington comes out ahead in the remaining 24.2 percent of sims.

By taking each team's projected scoring margins into account, the computer predicts that Oregon will defeat Washington by an expected 8.8 points, not enough to cover the line on the SI book.

Based on the point spread and total projection, the implied score of the game suggests that Oregon will beat the Huskies, 38-28, and has a 79.17 percent chance to win the game outright.

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Pac-12 Championship Game schedule

When: Fri., Dec. 1
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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