Penn State vs. Illinois picks, predictions: College football Week 3 computer picks, odds, lines

Expert picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Illinois in this Week 3 college football game as the Big Ten opens up this weekend

Big Ten football kicks things off this weekend as Illinois looks to avoid falling below .500 when it hosts No. 7 ranked Penn State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Illinois took a 34-23 loss on the road to resurgent Kansas last week, falling to 1-1 on the year after a close win against Toledo to open up, but the Illini looked like the weaker team on both lines of scrimmage against the Jayhawks, who posted over 9 yards per pass and 6.0 yards per carry on the ground while quarterback Luke Altmyer was held to 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on the night.

Penn State is an offensive colossus so far through two games, thanks to the solid early play of sophomore quarterback Drew Allar, a 78 percent passer who has put the ball in the air 55 times already with 529 yards and five all-purpose touchdowns behind an offense good for 510 yards per game.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Penn State vs. Illinois picks, predictions

Penn State vs. Illinois picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Penn State odds: The computers strongly favor the Nittany Lions with an 86.4 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the models that pick winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

Illinois odds: That leaves the Illini with the outside 13.6 percent shot to defend home field and hand Penn State its first loss, according to the updated analytics models.

Point spread: Penn State comes into the game as 14.5 point favorites against Illinois, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

Total: 48.5 points (Over -111, Under -111)

Penn State predictions: The index rates the Nittany Lions as the No. 7 team nationally in its updated 133 college football rankings, based on a projection that they are 21.8 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, and estimated to win 10.3 games this season.

Illinois odds: FPI ranks the Illini as the No. 53 team in the country, forecasted to be 3.0 points better than an average opponent and estimated to win 5.9 games this season.

Penn State vs. Illinois schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 12 p.m. ET, 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

More: A closer look at the AP top 25

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (55)
2. Michigan (2)
3. Florida State (3)
4. Texas (2)
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Washington
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Tennessee
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. LSU
15. Kansas State
16. Oregon State
17. Ole Miss
18. Colorado
19. Oklahoma
20. North Carolina
21. Duke
22. Miami
23. Washington State
24. UCLA
25. Iowa

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