Penn State vs. Iowa score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Penn State vs. Iowa in this Week 4 college football game

Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend in a notable cross-divisional matchup between teams in the AP top 25 rankings with Iowa going on the road against Penn State in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Iowa's offense has taken some modest strides in the right direction, averaging 302 yards and 28.3 points per game under the stewardship of quarterback Cade McNamara, a 54 percent passer with 4 TD passes and 3 INTs, but will be without lead target Luke Lachey after he sustained a leg injury last week.

Drew Allar has 737 yards and four touchdown passes in a solid start to his first full year at the helm for Penn State, which averages 467.3 yards per game thanks to a balanced attack that features a ground game good for 209 yards each time out.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.

Penn State vs. Iowa predictions

Penn State vs. Iowa picks, best bets / USA Today Images

Score prediction: The SP+ models project that Penn State has the 77 percent chance to win outright against Iowa, by a projected score of 26 to 14 behind an estimated scoring margin of 12.7 points.

Point spread: Penn State comes into the game as 14.5 point favorites against Iowa, according to the lines SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 40.5 points.

FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer analytics predictive system, favors Penn State to win with 86.8 percent likelihood, compared with Iowa at 13.2 percent, according to the model that simulates games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick leans towards Iowa, as 58 percent of bettors favor the Hawkeyes to cover at +14.5 in the game, compared with 42 percent who say Penn State will cover the spread. The over/under bets are split down the middle.

Betting trends: Iowa is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games... Total went under in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games... Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games... Penn State is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games... Total went over in 8 of PSU's last 11... Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 September games.

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Penn State vs. Iowa schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 23
Where: Penn State
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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