Penn State vs. Michigan State score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Michigan State in the Land Grant Trophy college football rivalry game

Despite having two losses on the season, they came against two of the top three ranked teams in college football, and by winning the season finale against Michigan State today, No. 11 Penn State can earn its way into a New Year's Six bowl game as college football's Week 13 action kicks off on Friday night.

• Penn State is 15th nationally in scoring offense, with 36.7 points on average per game, but scored 15 and 12 in its two losses to Michigan and Ohio State, respectively
• Lions rank No. 4 nationally in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score just 12.5 points per game on average
• But they're 102nd in passing production, as former 5-star quarterback Drew Allar is posting just under 196 yards in the air per game
• Michigan State is 2-6 in Big Ten play, second from the bottom in the East Division, and in the market for a new head coach after sacking Mel Tucker
• Spartans have won two of the last three overall, but lost 7 of the last 9, scoring over 20 points in just one of those games
• MSU is 128th in scoring with 17.4 points on average per game offensively

What can we make of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model.

Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction

The simulations predictably favor the Nittany Lions to come out ahead in this one.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Michigan State by a projected score of 35 to 8 and to win the game by an expected 27.4 points in the game.

The model gives PSU a strong 94 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Penn State is a 22 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total for 43.5 points in the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for PSU at -2500 and for MSU at +1200.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Penn State -22
• PSU to win -2500
• Bet under 43.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also expect Penn State to win easily.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index expects Penn State to win the game in an overwhelming 95 percent of its simulations, while Michigan State comes out ahead in the remaining 5 percent of sims.

The computer predicts that Penn State will defeat Michigan State by 26.6 points, enough to cover the line.

Bet on Michigan State vs. Penn State here

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Land Grant Trophy game time

When: Fri., Nov. 24
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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