Penn State vs. Ohio State football game preview, prediction

Our prediction for Penn State vs. Ohio State in this Big Ten football classic with a College Football Playoff berth potentially on the line

Plenty is on the line this weekend in a battle between undefeated, top-10 ranked Big Ten East rivals as No. 7 Penn State hits the road against No. 3 Ohio State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.

• Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin is 1-8 against Ohio State and is yet to beat the Buckeyes on the road, but the consensus of opinion is that this year's team represents his best chance. 
• A win would propel PSU into the B1G East title race and potentially College Football Playoff contention down the road.
• As it would for Ohio State, which already boasts a win over a top-10 team after sneaking out of Notre Dame with a close, statement victory.
• College Football HQ previews what to watch and makes a game prediction

Penn State vs. Ohio State preview, prediction

Ohio State vs. Penn State preview, prediction / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Penn State vs. Ohio State odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Ohio State -4.5
Total: 45.5 points
Moneyline: OSU -200 | PSU +150
FPI pick: Ohio State 63.4% to win

Penn State wins the game if

• It capitalizes on its elite defense and opens up the passing game

Manny Diaz's defense is No. 1 nationally in total production, boasts a line that has recorded 27 sacks, holds teams to 3.4 yards per play, and only 8 points per game.

Moreover, the unit has held opponents to no gain or negative yardage on a surprising 46 percent of its total snaps. It has the bodies up front to close down interior rushing lanes, generate consistent pressure on the quarterback, and the pieces in the secondary who can frustrate receiving patterns, allowing just 1 passing TD this year.

Penn State is 17th nationally with 203 rushing yards per game behind Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, an edge that can help open things up for quarterback Drew Allar who, while he hasn't thrown an interception, hasn't been aggressive moving the ball downfield as his talent suggests he can.

Ohio State wins the game if

• It protects the quarterback, runs the ball strong early, and scores in the red zone.

The change at QB, some struggles in protection, and injuries at running back have marginally cut into the Buckeyes' offensive production, especially in scoring position. 

Ohio State has come away with 7 points on just under 61 percent of its red zone possessions, a potential hindrance against a quality defense like Penn State's.

OSU boasts college football's premier receiving corps, led by Marvin Harrison, Jr., and it will have to lean on that skill talent as it deals with protection issues and injuries at running back. Kyle McCord isn't a finished product at quarterback, but he's reliable, ranking 1st in the Big Ten with 275.2 passing yards per game and with just one INT.

Defensively, the Buckeyes look up to the task, boasting a credible threat both in the front seven and against the pass, holding opponents to 9.7 points per game and four yards per snap on average, and don't have any big weaknesses.

Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction

Defense will dictate where this game goes from start to finish, and that should tilt things in Penn State's favor most of the day. The front seven will frustrate McCord's timing and hinder the Buckeyes' ability to run the ball, but if any team can break out and make a big play when it counts against this unit, it's Ohio State.

College Football HQ picks...

• Ohio State wins 24-21
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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