Penn State vs. Ole Miss: Peach Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Peach Bowl game as Penn State and Ole Miss square off in the latest installment of College Football Bowl Season

As we inch closer towards the new year, the second half of College Football Bowl Season brings us more prestigious matchups, including the annual Peach Bowl game that finds an intriguing SEC vs. Big Ten clash as No. 11 Ole Miss faces off against No. 10 Penn State on Saturday.

• Penn State: Finished 3rd in the Big Ten with losses to Ohio State and Michigan, and college football's most productive defense
• Ole Miss: Second in the SEC West, the Rebels lost to Alabama and Georgia and finished 19th nationally in scoring output

Ole Miss vs. Penn State prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 30
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Peach Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Penn State -4.5
Total: 48.5 points
Moneyline: PSU -200 | Rebs +170
FPI pick: Penn State 72.8% to win

What to watch for

1. The No. 1 defense. No defense in college football was better than Penn State this season, ranking tops nationally, one of two teams (Iowa) to allow under 4 yards per play on average, 1st in first down defense (151 allowed), 8th in third down defense (29.2%), and it set a school record while leading the nation with 48 sacks recorded. The unit can bring constant pressure, limit midfield gains, and close down deeper throwing lanes.

2. Red zone. One glaring weakness on the Nittany Lions' defense, however, is its performance inside the 20-yard line. If opponents get that close, they usually get points, scoring on 90 percent of opportunities in the red area. Penn State has allowed 18 scores out of 20 chances. 

But even that weakness contains a strength: The defense only allowed 20 red zone possessions total, the fewest nationally. Ole Miss is good for 87.3 percent of its chances inside the 20, ranking top 50 nationally, scoring on 48 of 55 chances, and 75% of those were touchdowns.

3. Battle at the lines. Ole Miss has the skill players and the balance offensively to credibly challenge Penn State's superb air defenses, but the Rebels' own protection may struggle in the face of a Nittany Lions front line pursuit group that can create negative plays with regularity. Watch in particular who wins the battles on third down, where the Rebs are 85th nationally, moving the chains on 36 percent of their chances.

Penn State vs. Ole Miss prediction

Penn State has the pieces, even without opt-out Chop Robinson on the field, to thwart the Rebels' offense from gaining any real consistent rhythm, especially on third down. 

And while the Nittany Lions will struggle to move the ball consistently in the air — quarterback Drew Allar hit under half his passes in three games, two of them losses — they have the backfield duo in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to grind out longer drives against the Rebels' 71st ranked run stop.

Defense and running the ball tend to win these games, but offenses that have big-play ability downfield like Ole Miss will keep it close throughout.

College Football HQ picks...

• Penn State wins 24-20
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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