Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction by football analytic model

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Kentucky in this SEC football classic

A pair of SEC border rivals renew hostilities this weekend in the Commonwealth as Kentucky looks to avoid falling under .500 in conference play against No. 21 ranked, two-loss Tennessee in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.

• Kentucky has dropped two straight, to East rivals Georgia and Missouri
• UK is 5-2 overall and 2-2 in SEC play and rank 105th in passing
• Vols led Bama last week but lost in a second half collapse
• Tennessee is 7th nationally with 217.3 rushing yards per game
• Both are tied for 4th in SEC East
• What can we expect in the game? Let's check in with SP+ prediction model

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction

The simulations favor Tennessee to defeat Kentucky, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ estimates that the Volunteers will beat the Wildcats by a projected score of 26 to 25, a forecasted scoring margin of 1.1 points in the game.

The model gives the Vols a 53 percent chance of victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 50.5 points in the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for UT at -188 and for UK at +145.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Kentucky +3.5
• Vols on the ML at -188
• Bet over 50.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools favor Tennessee to win the game, but by wider margins.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index computers project Tennessee will win the game in 70.7 percent of their simulations, or 14,140 of the total predictions.

Kentucky wins out in the remaining 29.3 percent of sims, or 5,860 projections.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts Tennessee will defeat Kentucky by 10.8 points, or if we round it up, by 11 points in the game, enough to cover the line.

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Tennessee at Kentucky schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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