Texas A&M vs. Tennessee football game preview, prediction
Fresh off an idle week, Big Orange looks to avoid falling to .500 in SEC games in this cross-divisional matchup as No. 19 Tennessee welcomes Texas A&M in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.
The Volunteers took a week off after defeating South Carolina at home, moving to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference play with the loss to Florida still looming large, working behind a balanced offense averaging over 466 total yards per game.
Texas A&M is 2-1 in SEC matchups and just a 6-point loss to Alabama away from being undefeated in conference, playing some punishing defense and hoping to record what would be a statement road victory on behalf of embattled coach Jimbo Fisher.
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee preview, prediction
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee game predictions
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How to watch live
When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Tennessee -3.5
Total: 54.5 points
Moneyline: Ags +120 | Vols -150
FPI pick: Tennessee 56.7% to win
What to watch for
1. Aggies at the line. This is where the game could be won or lost. Texas A&M comes in with college football's 10th ranked total defense, a unit that allows just under 269 total yards to opponents. It also leads the nation with 9.5 tackles for loss per game, and has not permitted a team to run and pass for 100 yards in a game yet. A&M is 5th nationally in allowing 2.61 yards per carry, all behind a rotation of well-coordinated, physically-imposing blockers who can clog inside lanes and outside escape routes.
2. Vols on the ground. In contrast to last season when Tennessee was airing it out downfield, this year it's all about a strong rushing attack. UT is ranked 7th nationally running for 231.2 yards per game on average and is 2nd in college football by posting 6.18 yards per rushing attempt. The trio of Jabari Small, Jaylen Wright, and Dylan Sampson are all good for over 6 ypc and have big-play ability going up against an Aggie defense that is 1 of 6 in FBS to allow just 1 rushing score.
3. Milton vs. Aggies' secondary. Tennessee may need Joe Milton to put the game on his back if A&M is able to bottle up the run game. The quarterback is yet to pass for 300 yards in a game and he has just 8 throws of 25 or more yards. The Aggies' back seven is beatable at times. Will he have enough time in the pocket to locate his downfield threats before the pressure affects his timing?
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee prediction
A&M has lost seven straight on the road under Jimbo Fisher, whereas Tennessee has won 12 straight at home under Josh Heupel. History of that kind may not play a direct role in games, but it does reveal trends.
Home field advantage could play the decisive role, combined with an overlooked strength for the Vols: their own front line defense. They allow just 4.4 yards per snap, are 2nd with 47 tackles for a loss, and rank 4th in the SEC in both red zone and third down defense.
A&M has the bodies to stifle the Vols backs for most of the day, but Milton should find enough mid-range throwing lanes in the play-action against the Aggie back seven to move into scoring position, while the front seven applies pressure on Max Johnson, who is prone to turnovers when under duress, and this improved secondary steadily contains A&M's receivers in the second half.
- Tennessee wins 30-27
- Doesn't cover the spread
- And hits the over
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