Tennessee vs. Iowa: 2024 Citrus Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2024 Citrus Bowl as Tennessee and Iowa meet in this SEC vs. Big Ten college football bowl clash on New Year's Day

New Year's Day welcomes in 2024 and five games on the college football bowl schedule, including the two playoff semifinal matchups. But first the annual Citrus Bowl gets underway with an intriguing Big Ten vs. SEC clash as No. 17 Iowa faces off against No. 21 Tennessee live from Orlando.

• Tennessee: An early season loss to Florida hurt the Vols' chances at the SEC East, but a 3-3 stretch late in the year included losses to Missouri and Georgia to finish 8-4 and third in the division standings
• Iowa: Woeful offense and brilliant defense once again defined the Hawkeyes' season, going 10-3 and winning the Big Ten West before falling to Michigan, ranking 4th worst nationally by scoring 16.6 points per game

Tennessee vs. Iowa prediction, preview

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2024 Citrus Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Tennessee -5.5
Total: 35.5 points
Moneyline: Vols -215 | IA +180
FPI pick: Tennessee 70.6% to win

What to watch for

1. Change at QB. Joe Milton opted out of the Citrus Bowl, depriving the Vols of a key building block on their 17th ranked total offense, but it means we'll get a detailed look at Nico Iamaleava, the 2nd ranked QB and 5-star prospect from the 2023 class. Iamaleava has a strong arm and strategic mobility to lean on, and he'll face a fierce early test against an Iowa front seven that can generate consistent pressure and disrupt his rhythm as the young signal caller looks to read through his progressions and make the right decisions.

2. About that defense. Whatever is true of the Hawkeyes offense, the opposite is of their defensive rotation, a well-disciplined, consistent unit that ranks 5th nationally in total production, 9th against the pass, 11th against the run, and 4th in scoring, allowing just 13.2 points per game, allowing more than 20 just twice. 

It can plug inside running lanes, close down escape routes to the outside, limit gains behind the line, and is stellar in pass coverage. But the discrepancy between the Big Ten and SEC has to be mentioned here. Just ask Penn State, whose No. 1 ranked defense allowed more yards to Ole Miss in the first half of the Peach Bowl than it averaged in every game all season. SEC speed tends to force these defenses into adjustments they haven't had to make during the regular season.

3. Battle at the line. Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright are out, depriving Tennessee of its two most productive backs. Dylan Sampson will play, as will Cameron Seldon. Sampson was third on the team with 471 rushing yards, 4 fewer than Small, but on 9 fewer carries, averaging 5.5 yards per run, and rushing for 7 touchdowns, more than Wright and Small had combined (6). Should the Vols win key blocking battles early, Sampson has the engine to throw Iowa off its game at the line and open things up for Iamaleava to build momentum throwing the ball behind the coverage.

Tennessee vs. Iowa prediction

Having to rely on a freshman quarterback making his first career start is usually a recipe for trouble, but doubly so when he starts against one of the best defenses in the country. Not to mention not having two of your three running backs to help balance things out offensively. 

Iowa will grind this to a halt, but the loss of top cornerback Cooper DeJean, lost to an injury in November, could be the difference as the Vols look to move the ball in the air, combined with what appears to be an edge at the line as they pressure the quarterback.

College Football HQ picks...

• Tennessee wins 24-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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