Tennessee vs. Missouri Game Prediction, Preview

What to expect as SEC East rivals Tennessee and Missouri meet in Week 11 action

The right to be called the second-best team in the SEC East is up for grabs this weekend in a battle of ranked division rivals as No. 14 Missouri looks to rebound from a close road loss by hosting No. 13 ranked Tennessee in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

• Teams are tied for No. 2 in the SEC East at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in conference
• Mizzou played close at Georgia last week, but late turnovers resulted in a loss
• Vols lost to Florida, Alabama this season, but playing better defense in 2023
• Saturday is the first time these teams meet when both ranked
• Big Orange stacked up 62 points over the Tigers in last year's meeting
• Tennessee hosts Georgia a week after this game

Tennessee vs. Missouri preview, prediction

Tennessee vs. Missouri predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Tennessee vs. Missouri game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Tennessee -1.5
Total: 58.5 points
Moneyline: Vols -125 | UM +100
FPI pick: Tennessee 60.9% to win

Keys to the game

1. Red zone. No team in college football is better inside the 20 than Missouri, which boasts a more than 97 percent success rate on offense in scoring position. Of the 38 times the offense has moved in the red area, it has scored 37 times, including 12 field goals and 25 touchdowns (10 pass, 15 rush). Tennessee is 55th in red zone defense, allowing 22 scores on 27 possessions, including 12 touchdowns.

2. Missouri is balanced. The trio of Cook-Burden-Wease naturally gets most of the attention, as they should. Cook is 3rd in the SEC in passing yards and 3rd nationally in completion percentage when getting pressured, hitting almost 6 in 10 attempts. 

And when the Tigers want to run, they turn to lead tailback Cody Schrader, a physical rusher who ranks 1st in the SEC with just under more than 102 rushing yards per game and 2nd in the conference with 10 rushing TDs, and can generate consistent yards after contact.

3. Battle at the line. Last year, the Vols' offensive identity was its potent air attack. But this year, that focus has shifted to a productive ground game led by three backs — Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson — who boast open-field speed, agility in traffic, and field vision, and who together represent college football's 3rd ranked rushing offense, averaging under 228 yards per game. Missouri is 5th in the SEC and top 25 nationally in run defense, allowing 3.62 ypc and just 5 rushing touchdowns.

Tennessee vs. Missouri prediction

This game should be as close as the point spread indicates. Both sides play productive offense behind efficient quarterbacks and can run the ball consistently. 

Tennessee can play with a little more tempo and has the bodies up front to frustrate Missouri's ground game, but the Vols' occasionally inconsistent passing attack, home-field advantage, and the Tigers' ability to push the ball in the air will be the difference.

College Football HQ picks...

• Missouri wins 31-28
• In an upset
• And hits the over

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