Tennessee vs. Missouri: Score Prediction, Game Pick

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Missouri in this Week 11 college football game

Two teams near the top of the SEC East standings meet up in Columbia this weekend for a shot at second place behind the defending champions in a battle of schools in the College Football Playoff rankings, as No. 14 Missouri welcomes No. 13 Tennessee.

• Both are 7-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play
• But the Tigers already have a loss to Georgia
• Vols host the Bulldogs next weekend
• Tennessee is 3rd nationally in rushing production
• Missouri is balanced on offense, but 2 turnovers hurt in the UGA game
• Let's check in with SP+ prediction model to project the game

Tennessee vs. Missouri score prediction

The simulations favor the Volunteers to win the game, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Missouri by a projected score of 29 to 26 and win the game by an estimated 2.2 points.

The model gives UT a 55 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Tennessee is a 1.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for UT at -120 and for Mizzou at -105.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Tennessee -1.5
• Vols on the ML at -120
• Bet under 58.5 (-111)

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools largely project the Vols to win the game, as well.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects Tennessee will win the game in 60.6 percent of its simulations, or 12,120 of its total projections.

Missouri wins out in the remaining 39.4 percent of sims, or 7,880 predictions.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Tennessee will beat Missouri by 6.1 points, enough to cover the line.

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Tennessee at Missouri game time

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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