Texas A&M vs. South Carolina score prediction by college football analytic model

Making a prediction for Texas A&M vs. South Carolina with help from the analytic model that picks college football game winners

Cross-divisional SEC rivals square off from Kyle Field this weekend as Texas A&M welcomes South Carolina in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.

• Texas A&M comes off an open week and following 2 straight loss, to Alabama and Tennessee
• Aggies are 4-3 overall and 2-2 in SEC play
• Gamecocks allow over 305 yards passing per game
• Carolina lost 4 of the last 5 and posting under 94 rushing yards per game
• What can we expect in the game? Let's check in with SP+ prediction model

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina prediction

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina game predictions / USA Today Images

The simulations favor Texas A&M to win relatively comfortably at home.

SP+ expects the Aggies to take down the Gamecocks by a projected score of 34 to 20 by an expected scoring margin of 14.3 points in the game.

The model gives Texas A&M an 80 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Texas A&M is the 15.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points in the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for A&M at -699 and the Gamecocks at +425.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• South Carolina +15.5
• A&M on the ML at -699
• Bet over 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor Texas A&M to win the game outright.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts Texas A&M to win the game in 84.6 percent of its simulations, or 16,920 of the 20,000 projections. Carolina wins in the remaining 15.4 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's projected point margins per game, the index computer predicts A&M will beat South Carolina by 10.5 points, or if we round it up, by 11 points in the game.

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South Carolina at Texas A&M schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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