Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State: Texas Bowl prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2023 Texas Bowl game as Texas A&M and Oklahoma State face off in the latest College Football Bowl Season matchup

College Football Bowl Season kicks off the second half of the postseason after the Christmas holidays with an SEC vs. Big 12 matchup pitting two former conference foes against each other on the same field, as Texas A&M takes on Oklahoma State.

• Texas A&M: The Aggies went 7-5 overall and 4-4 in SEC play, finishing 4th in the West standings and fired head coach Jimbo Fisher
• Oklahoma State: The Cowboys went 9-4 on the year and 7-2 in Big 12 games, and lost to Texas in the conference title game

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State prediction, preview

When: Wed., Dec. 27
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Texas Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Okla. State -3
Total: 54.5 points
Moneyline: A&M +130 | OSU -150
FPI pick: Texas A&M 71.8% to win

What to watch for

1. Pokes' X-factor. Oklahoma State back Ollie Gordon announced he'll return to school in 2024, good news for the team after he led college football with 1,614 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. The first-team All-American is the engine of the Cowboys' offense and, while he's going up against an Aggie front seven among the best against the run nationally, it's also a unit that lost a ton of production, including star tackle Walter Nolen, who transferred to Ole Miss.

2. Ags on the attack. The loss of quarterbacks Conner Weigman (to injury) and Max Johnson (injury, then portal), in addition to receivers Evan Stewart (portal) and Ainias Smith (draft) may not spell the end of Texas A&M's offense. Not thanks to quarterback Jaylen Henderson, who had 704 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs in three straight starts. Henderson's mobility, the Aggies' returning ground production, and what's left of the receiving corps can challenge OSU's 103rd ranked pass defense.

3. Can the Cowboys stop anything? OSU has been suspect on the defensive side of the ball, ranking just 124th out of 133 FBS teams in total production, and 90th in scoring, allowing 29 points per game and 50 total touchdowns. The Cowboys are 99th in third down defense and 82nd in the red zone, allowing opponents to score 28 out of 33 times. A&M scores on 86% of red zone possessions.

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State prediction

Like most bowl games, motivation and personnel losses could play a larger role on the field even than overall talent. On that score, the Cowboys have the advantage, looking to win a 10th game and finish strong, while the Aggies are a team in transition undergoing a coaching change and losing key pieces to the portal or the draft.

That vaunted A&M run defense lost too much of its foundational talent to seriously contend with the challenge that Gordon will present at the line of scrimmage for all four quarters, but the Aggies still have enough of their own firepower to make this a game.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oklahoma State wins 31-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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