Kansas vs. Texas game preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas welcomes Kansas in this last Big 12 meeting as the Week 5 college football schedule kicks off, with our updated game prediction

For maybe the last time ever, the Longhorns and Jayhawks will meet on the same field as members of the Big 12 before next year's conference realignment. But for now, it's still a league game between No. 3 Texas and No. 24 Kansas on the Forty Acres in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Two years ago, KU went into Austin and came out with a 57-56 overtime victory, and last year the Longhorns returned the favor in Lawrence with a 55-14 thrashing. 

Now, both teams are a perfect 4-0 — Kansas with wins over Illinois and BYU behind an offense good for 463 yards per game as Jalon Daniels hits on 75 percent of his passes, and Texas with a statement win at Alabama that propelled it into the top five.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Texas and Kansas square off, along with our updated Week 5 game predictions.

Kansas vs. Texas preview, prediction

Texas vs. Kansas picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Texas vs. Kansas game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas -16.5
Total: 60.5 points
Moneyline: KU +500 | UT -901
FPI pick: Texas 93.5% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. The Jayhawks have been very touch-and-go running the football, but when it works, good things happen. Devin Neal is averaging a shade under 100 rushing yards per game and is hitting just under 7 yards per carry. He's going against a Longhorn front that is allowing just 87 yards on the ground and has surrendered a single rushing touchdown.

2. Texas can stop you. Offense puts butts in the seats but defense wins championships, and so far the Longhorns are playing some of the best. They rank 12th nationally allowing only 12.5 points per game and present a formidable combination of size and speed in particular at the line, where they can close down your interior running lanes and force you to the outside.

3. Third down battle. No team in the country is better than Kansas when it comes to moving the chains on third down, converting on 26 of 43 attempts, good for 60.5 percent, ranking No. 1 nationally. Key to that success is the Jayhawks' mid-range air game, Daniels' in-pocket mobility and accuracy, and a playbook that prizes balance. But Texas will pose a challenge to KU, ranking No. 18 in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 30.5 percent of opportunities.

Kansas vs. Texas prediction

Texas vs. Kansas: Who wins? / USA Today Images

Kansas is allowing over 200 air yards per game, and that's against a subpar schedule of opponents who rank in the triple digits nationally in offensive production. 

Texas is another animal, capable of getting to 300 fairly easily, especially if Quinn Ewers can find tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. So far, he has: Sanders went over 100 yards in 2 games already and posts 22 yards per catch.

Kansas will bother you on third down with misdirection and Daniels will find those 6 and 7 yard pass plays to extend drives, but ultimately the Longhorns can get deep easier and quicker and have the bodies to dictate terms in the A and B gaps when the Jayhawks want to run the ball.

College Football HQ picks...

• Texas wins 37-23
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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