Texas vs. Houston football game score prediction

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Houston by the model that picks college football game winners

A pair of Lone Star State rivals square off this weekend in a new-look Big 12 matchup as No. 8 ranked, one-loss Texas goes on the road against former Southwest Conference foe Houston in college football's Week 8 action.

Texas is averaging more than 486 yards per game on average, with Quinn Ewers supplying 62 percent of that production by averaging just over 300 yards in the air, going against a Houston defense that is 108th nationally in scoring.

What do the analytics think of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly to formulate a game projection.

Texas vs. Houston prediction

Texas vs. Houston predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations favor a convincing victory for Texas over the Cougars this week.

SP+ projects that the Longhorns will defeat Houston by an estimated score of 37 to 21, with a projected scoring margin of 18.2 points in the game.

The model gives Texas a strong 85 percent chance to win the game outright, compared with a 15 percent shot at the upset for Houston.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the model is 188-178-10 straight-up (51.3%) and 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%).

Point spread

Texas is a 23.5 point favorite against Houston, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 60.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Houston +23.5
• Texas on the ML at -3333
• Bet under 60.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also project Texas will win the game.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick game winners.

The index projects Texas as the outright winner in 93.6 percent of its simulations, compared to Houston winning in the remaining 6.4 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between both teams' projected scoring margins per game, according to FPI, the computers predict Texas will defeat Houston by 23.6 points, or if we round it up, by 24 points in the game.

That would be just enough to cover the 23.5 point line for the Longhorns.

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Texas at Houston schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 3 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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