Texas vs. Iowa State Game Prediction, Preview

What to expect as Texas travels to Iowa State in this Week 12 college football game

Since the loss to arch-rival Oklahoma a few weeks ago, its only defeat of the season, No. 7 ranked Texas has won four straight football games, but now the margin for error is so razor-thin that there's no room for any mistakes now as the Longhorns meet Big 12 rival Iowa State in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.

• Texas is playing not just for Big 12 title contention, but also potentially for the right to play in what would be the school's first College Football Playoff
• To make the final four, the Longhorns would need to not just win out going forward, but also get some help from other ranked teams around the country
• Iowa State has won three of the last five against Texas and came within three points of another win last season in this matchup
• Since starting out 2-3, the Cyclones have won four of the last five games, moving to 5-2 in conference play this season

Texas vs. Iowa State prediction, preview

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Longhorns vs. Cyclones game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas -7.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: UT -300 | ISU +250
FPI pick: Texas 78.5% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Iowa State isn't the best rushing team in the world, ranking 96th nationally with 129.2 yards per game on average, and it hits just over four yards per attempt. But freshman Abu Sama is a potential big-play back who can be dangerous in space. He went for over 100 yards and 2 scores on just 8 carries against BYU last week. The Cyclones need to create running lanes against a Longhorn run stop that is 7th nationally by allowing just 3.01 yards per carry and only around 90 total per game.

2. Red zone. No team in college football is better at scoring inside the 20 this season than Iowa State, which is 24 for 24 on red area attempts. Of those scores, 14 are touchdowns (58.3%) and 10 are field goals (41.7%). The problem? Texas ranks No. 3 nationally in red zone defense, averaging 66.7% by allowing opponents to score 20 times out of 30 chances, with 11 of those being touchdowns.

3. Texas' plan of attack. That is, without lead back Jonathon Brooks, who is out for the year after an ACL tear. In steps CJ Baxter, the true freshman who averages 4.5 ypc this year. Inexperience in the backfield could move Texas to lean more on throwing the ball, especially with how well Baxter blocks for the pass. But Quinn Ewers needs to be careful moving against the Cyclones' back seven, a disciplined unit that plays intelligent coverage and is 2nd in college football with 15 intercepted passes this year.

Texas vs. Iowa State prediction

Iowa State plays a ball-control style of offense that wants to generate consistent gains by running the ball or moving the sticks with a battery of intermediate pass patterns, slow down the game and control the clock. 

That plays right into the Longhorns' strength in the front seven of closing down interior running lanes and clogging escape routes on the outside for both opposing backs and quarterbacks who can move the pocket.

Iowa State doesn't turn the ball over a ton, is terrific defending the third down, and should play respectably against the pass. But Texas has the speed at the skill positions and the bodies on defense to frustrate the Cyclones' inconsistent offense in the end.

College Football HQ picks...

• Texas wins 27-21
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

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