Texas vs. TCU: Score Prediction, Game Pick

Picks and predictions for Texas vs. TCU in this Week 11 college football game

As we move deeper into November and with just three regular season games left, No. 7 ranked Texas is still squarely in the College Football Playoff chase, at one loss and can ill afford any mishaps now heading into a road game against TCU in Week 11.

• Texas held off K-State in a close one at home last week
• Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers expected to return from injury
• TCU, last year's CFP runner-up, is just 2-4 in Big 12 this season
• Horned Frogs have dropped four of the last five games overall
• And could be without at least three wide receiver targets this week

Texas vs. TCU game prediction

The simulations favor Texas to defeat its in-state rival this weekend.

SP+ predicts that the Longhorns will beat TCU by a projected score of 33 to 22 and win the game by an estimated 10.9 points.

The model gives Texas a 74 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas -12.5
Total: 54.5 points
Moneyline: UT -549 | TCU +350

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• TCU +12.5
• Texas to win -549
• Bet over 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Most other analytic tools also side with the Longhorns to win on the road.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts that Texas will win the game in 77.2 percent of simulations, or 15,440 of the projections.

TCU wins out in the remaining 22.8 percent of sims, or 4,560 predictions.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Texas will defeat TCU by 12.8 points, just enough to cover the line.

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Texas at TCU game time

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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