Texas vs. Washington: College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl game prediction, pick

Predictions for the 2024 College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl semifinal game as Texas and Washington play for a shot at the national championship

The second leg of the College Football Playoff national semifinal brings us an intriguing Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup between two schools about to make moves to a new conference, but not without first getting a shot at the national championship, as No. 2 Washington takes on No. 3 Texas in the CFP Sugar Bowl semifinal game.

• Texas: Longhorns beat Alabama on the road but lost to Oklahoma before winning their final seven games, including the Big 12 championship, finishing 12-1
• Washington: Huskies went undefeated through 13 games and won the final-ever Pac-12 football title behind college football's No. 1 passing offense

Texas vs. Washington prediction, preview

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 8:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2024 Sugar Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas -4
Total: 63.5 points
Moneyline: UT -185 | UW +155
FPI pick: Texas 68.6% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Washington isn't known as a running team thanks to that air attack led by Michael Penix, Jr., but lead back Dillon Johnson is still a credible threat after running for 1,113 yards and 14 touchdowns. 

The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the nation's best offensive line, but it will get tested against a Texas front seven that is 3rd in run defense, allowing 2.87 yards per carry. Washington is able to win the game in the air, but it needs to balance things out somewhat, something the Longhorns will make very difficult.

2. Red zone gap. Despite ranking top 10 nationally in total offensive production, one glaring weakness of the Texas offense remains its production when in scoring position. Coming in, the unit converts red zone chances into touchdowns on just 49 percent of opportunities, scoring on 27 of 55 attempts. 

Washington scores touchdowns inside the 20-yard line on more than 70 percent of opportunities. If these averages hold out in this game, the Huskies could have an important advantage.

3. Defense. Washington doesn't rank among college football's better defenses, posting the 93rd total unit and is 119th against the pass. But behind those numbers is a gifted coverage combination that ranks 8th nationally with 16 intercepted passes, tied with Texas, and seven different players have at least one pick. 

And though the front seven doesn't get a lot of sacks, it can generate consistent pressure off the edges, and goes against a Texas front that allowed 26 sacks. Ewers is completing almost 71 percent of his throws and has just 6 turnovers on the year.

Texas vs. Washington prediction

If the version of Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense that we saw to close out the season shows up in this game, then they can easily match up with what the Huskies can do throwing the football. 

But over time, the Longhorns should have more success running the ball, going on longer drives to keep Washington off the field, and have the decided advantage when limiting gains on the ground defensively.

College Football HQ picks...

• Texas wins 38-35
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

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