Texas vs. Washington score prediction by college football expert model

Expert score predictions for the 2024 Sugar Bowl at the College Football Playoff as Texas and Washington square off for a right at the national championship

A shot at the national championship is staged for primetime on New Year's Day as the second leg of the College Football Playoff kicks off from the Big Easy in the 2024 Sugar Bowl as Texas and Washington face off in the national semifinal.

It's safe to say that Texas is, at long last, "back." The Longhorns won the Big 12 championship and earned their first-ever College Football Playoff bid in the year before they head off to the SEC looking to make a statement. 

Washington has won 20 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation, and is riding the No. 1 passing offense in college football. What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

Texas vs. Washington prediction

The simulations favor the Longhorns to pull out the win on New Year's night.

SP+ estimates that Texas will defeat Washington by a projected score of 33 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 6.0 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a 64 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Texas is a 4 point favorite against Washington, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 63.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -185 and for Washington at +155.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas -4
• Longhorns to win -185
• Bet under 63.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytic tools also favor the Longhorns to come out ahead here.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index expects that Texas will win the game in 68.4 percent of its simulations, while Washington comes out ahead in the remaining 31.6 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margins into account, the computer projects that Texas will defeat Washington by 5.7 points, enough to cover the line.

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2024 Sugar Bowl game time

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 8:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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