UAB vs. Miami (OH) Bahamas Bowl game prediction, preview

Prediction and preview of the 2022 Bahamas Bowl between UAB and Miami (OH) as the college football bowl schedule kicks off

College football bowl season kicks off this week with the Bahamas Bowl that pits UAB from Conference USA against Miami of Ohio out of the MAC.

Miami checks in at 6-6 overall with a 4-4 mark in conference play after qualifying for a bowl game for a third straight non-Covid season, winning its final regular season game in order to become bowl eligible.

Same for the Blazers, which won their last game to move to 6-6, coming in on the verge of a coaching change, with interim Bryant Vincent leading the program in this game before incoming coach Trent Dilfer set to lead the team in the future.

Here's what you need to know about the Bahamas Bowl as Miami and UAB kick off the college football bowl season.

UAB vs. Miami (OH) Bahamas Bowl prediction, preview

Bahamas Bowl 2022: UAB vs. Miami prediction

How to watch, stream

When: Fri., Dec. 16

Time: 11:30 a.m. Eastern

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

Odds, betting lines, point spread

Point spread: UAB comes into the game as comfortable 10.5 point favorites, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 45 points

Moneyline: UAB -500 | Miami +310

Place your bets: Bet live on UAB vs. Miami on SI Sportsbook

FPI prediction: UAB has the 76.7 percent chance to defeat Miami, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.

Bahamas Bowl: UAB vs. Miami keys to victory

UAB wins if: It runs the ball consistently. The Blazers won't have their All-American rusher DeWayne McBride, who led the program to its best rushing production ever, setting records with 1,713 yards, 19 touchdowns on the ground, and an average of 7.4 yards per carry. He helped lead UAB to a 5th national ranking with 243.5 rushing yards per game, ahead of even Michigan, but the team's backfield is still in good shape with Jermaine Brown stepping in for McBride after he ran for 832 yards on 142 carries.

Miami wins if: It stops the run. The RedHawks have a capable dual threat in quarterback Aveon Smith, who passed for over 1,100 yards and ran for 507 more, but overall the offense posted just over 20 points per game. Miami's strength is its defense, which is top 40 nationally against the run allowing 135.8 rushing yards per game and leads the MAC stopping the run and in scoring defense, holding four teams to under 100 yards rushing and surrendered just 15 TDs on the ground.

Pick 'em: UAB vs. Miami picks, predictions against the spread

UAB vs. Miami Bahamas Bowl Prediction

There's precedent for Miami winning games despite playing poorly against the run, namely in games against Ball State and Northern Illinois, but overall the RedHawks have not fared as well as hoped when lining up against the better rushing attacks.

This may not be an offensive showcase, but the Blazers have the pieces and the blocking to extend plays and move the chains on third down, and then punch it in when inside the red zone, going a respectable 76 percent in scoring position.

UAB has a burst that Miami doesn't when it has the ball and, despite the RedHawks being able to keep it close early, the Blazers will be able to grind them down.

College Football HQ Prediction: UAB 27, Miami 17 | Miami +10.5 | Under 45

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